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Machine learning for trading

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Can Machine Learning REALLY Predict Stock Market Prices | #99 (Machine Learning #2)

1 585 views | 22 Sep. 2020

In today's video, we'll be

In today's video, we'll be analyzing a Youtuber called Computer Science and a video I stumbled upon where he uses machine learning to make stock market predictions with Apple's stock. I thought with Apple's crazy increase and then subsequent 20% correction after he published the video, that we should analyze if machine learning could REALLY predict stock market prices.

Please watch his video for a step-by-step of the code used in this video. He does one of the best jobs of walking through the code that I've seen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIUxPv5PJOY Please subscribe to his channel and leave a comment telling him you saw his video from my channel.

Here's the link to the previous video in my Machine Learning playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLT8WeU5lHsiTzmcBnBZpMpRiwsl2_5zJz

#stockprediction #Python #machinelearning

Jay M

Good video. Basically, machine learning programmers/YT creators just discovered curve fitting for stock prices -- a bad idea that's been around for decades -- and have been repackaging it for clicks. People have been able to backtest and optimize any trade system to perfect past performance that completely fails in forward testing. Machine learning just makes the process faster. And as you said, it makes a really nice click-baity graph with visions of some AI making you rich.

ShotokuTech

I am putting all my fortune in on A.I.!

David Arguello

Hi, how could I get for example 10 future predicted prices and plot them in the graph, not just the one price for tomorrow/today to see how accurate is the model in the future prices. Thanks

Jeff Price

Program it to predict the Power Ball numbers next please!

Joey Travlstine

Ah nice

Machine learning for trading

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Trading strategies, powered by machine learning · Morgan Slade

12 242 views | 3 Jul. 2017

EP 131: Strategy

EP 131: Strategy development—powered by machine learning w/ Morgan Slade

Morgan Slade is the CEO of CloudQuant. His career as a trader and portfolio manager began 20-years back, and since then he’s worked at many prominent firms and funds. To name just a few; Millburn Ridgefield, Merrill Lynch, Citadel and Allston Trading.

During this episode, Morgan explains his views on 'common' strategy development methods and offers an alternative 3-step formula. Plus, we discuss how machine learning fits into a traders toolbox and why it has the capabilities of increasing performance metrics.

FX Trading King

Hey guys! please take a minute to contribute to my campaign to succeed in Forex and Save the World! https://www.gofundme.com/want-to-start-a-new-career

Schrodinger's Cat

Chat With Traders is simply the best place for trading education. If you're new to trading, this is it. Amazing work Aaron.

Art Torrez

It's funny to me how many highly educated and very experienced Quants spend all their time, effort, knowledge, antiquated tool's and research trying to rationalize the optimization of their incorrect models instead of simply trying to find the correct model.

The Wright brothers proved this point when they spent many years trying to create a flying airplane that flapped it's wings much like the birds they observed. Only when where ready to give up, they decided to go with their gut instincts and go with a completely different model using angled wings and a propeller engine did they finally get 12 minutes of flight. Their model design didn't make sense but it worked.

I'm a Quant that wasted no time on statistical optimization and benchmarking metrics to determine how efficient or inefficient my models were. If it doesn't work the first shot it means you got the wrong model PERIOD!

When my next model worked on the first try, Bam! I knew I hit the jackpot. It is the perfect dead on model! 100 percent! Who ever said that there was no Holy Grail!!!??? Don't listen and follow those who have failed and claim it's non existence only because they believe they would have it if it did. They don't have it because they are imprisoned inside of their own mental box! Imagine all that PHD education wasted on a closed off perimeter of academic mines they are so afraid of breaching. Hahaha! It's like watching a bunch of monkeys that are programmed to perform in a circus. They don't even know they are invisibly chained within their boundaries forever! Hahaha!

kyokushinfighter78

High quality content!!amazing interviews!

PJ

Great interview

reverse moustache cat

His feedback seems heavily optimized and runs counter to others. He thinks that it is possible to predict the market and focuses on entries. His take seems sophomoric. Inline with what a traditional program trader would say. High win rate coupled with a good average trade profit and a focus on entries. Seems traditionally what you would expect but counter to what people like Rob would say where he places the edge much more on risk management and not entries. The man is accomplished and entitled to his take, but I am not sure whose right here as advice is counter to many others

Bruno Borges

please enable auto CC. It's very usefully for foreigns

Ryan Vance

There is no use in presenting with a methodology that doesn’t work, no matter how nicely these time sequences work out in engulfing patterns. It is only when I began to wait for the candle formations to tell me they would validate these time and price clusters on a chart did things change for me. If you don’t know anything about Lukasz Wilhelm method on time sequences pattern, it’s one thing to try to put on a trade. Without the knowledge of this new language, one spot on the chart isn’t very different than another spot.

Chat With Traders

Full show notes for this episode, available here: https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-131-morgan-slade/

Ninja

That Pre Ad Music is awesome, and the timing was great! ;)

Nana

24:20 from my experience, trading without stop-loss is like being in a toxic relationship and think it's not gonna hurt. there're lots of good people waiting for a good relationship, just cut loss fast and move on for the next one.

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How A.I. Traders Will Dominate Hedge Fund Industry | Marshall Chang | TEDxBeaconStreetSalon

151 030 views | 4 Oct. 2018

We've seen fully

We've seen fully automated bot beats us in Go, one-on-one Poker and Dota II, now what's going to happen for trading financial markets? Listen to A.I. Capital Management sharing their research, a Deep Learning trading agent that over-performs us in trading FX markets. Marshall has been trading FX markets for 5 years. As a Master in Finance graduate from Brandeis International Business school, he combines his insight in financial markets with a passion for machine learning and expertise in programming, striving to build the first game-changing A.I. trading system to disrupt the markets.

He has a strong passion for quantitative trading and machine learning and started AI Capital Management in September 2016. His inspiration came from Google DeepMind’s AlphaGo project, which is a Deep Learning agent that beats human Go world champions. Go, as a game with complexity at a number more than the atom in the universe, is arguably as hard as or even harder than trading financial markets, which they believe is the next game to be solved with Artificial Intelligence. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/tedx

Michael Carnahan

Love the takeaway message! When AI is developed we should shift our focus to defining the problems instead of trying to compete to solve the problem.

Max _

hmmmmm trading is not easy, neither for an AI

Jacek Wojcik

Breathe...

Roberto

Muito bom. Vale a pena assistir!

Sean Blaque

Great Ted X Chat

Shejad Ajmeri

What is your thoughts on numeraire crypto currency

Sam

can I do a TED TALK ? yo i wanna do a ted talk about benefits of memes

unknown unknown

Hybrids systems are far superior to 100% A.I driven systems.

MGR

5:50, 6:06

JB Smoov

This guy sounds like AI

Chris Sun

Where to buy. Where to sell
100-> 374. Almost 1000
Marshall Chang

Coexisting
Define the problem

thana leelavongpanich

scam are coming here.

mcoyid

SKYNET is already watching this Video & Reading all your Comments. Its Learning you all!!!

Wojciech Kapera

a over 500% annual return in forex would make you a legend.

siajiale

Sigh what will happen to human traders

Chaitanya Sharma

His lip smacks are annoying af

Benjamin Morales Perez

People who are saying Renaissance Technology has been using AI are ridiculous, Jim Simons in his interviews has mentioned machine learning, something that’s different than AI although used interchangeably, there are differences. They looked at subtle anomalies in the market, not trends.

Zoltan L

in the end, if your vision is coming to be reality, human vs AI will evolve to AI vs AI, then one super AI vs nothing, bcos it will beat all others....and then the markets/funds stop to exits...for a trade someone need to be taking the other side, and there wont be anyone or anything left to rationally do that.
in effect the super AI will kell the market, and thus self destruct itself, with no market its use is over.

外汇交易员美国

Trading is so easy

Irfayas Seyf

You have no clue

Ay Caramba

One day all machines make sure all stocks' charts go perfectly horizontal with 0% volatility sending us a message "F** you, mankind!!!"

Michael Carnahan

Interesting. Good talk, I'm surprised more people weren't in the crowd

Rocky Khyriem

This guy is AI...

nik kerr

Artificial Intelligence will handle all our major problems in the future, or.., it may just be the last invention made by mankind. In today's fast-changing business environment "hyperautomation" is the combination of automation tools to deliver work. Also, knowledge workers don't feel threatened by automation: they have embrace the robots as team-mates. This is what Morozov calls "solutionism" – the idea that any problem can be solved by machines with a computer code. AI, oh well… Getting into the emotional root will be crucial, but the fate of mankind will not get a single real benefit from it! We will become like the drunk who searches for his lost keys where the streetlight shines, rather than where he actually lost them.

rundown thomas

yes ...but did he take into account transactional costs.

Mlogan11

Until AI develops a better Sharp Ratio, humans have nothing to fear. Not many will want to invest in a program that has 50%+ draw downs.

Ji Cho

Wasn’t very informative at all

D Man

"Will" dominate ? Asset management? Housing crisis ? Mass homelessness and shared rental accommodation? Corporations buying all the houses for assets ? No houses left for regular people to buy so house prices rise ? Hey great because corporate asset value increases ? Hey great more money for ai to leverage as betting collateral in the stock and crypto markets ?, an repeat ! ? There is only so many billionaire seats at the table ?

richie m

A.I. MADE ME A MULTI BILLIONAIRE.........I LOVE IT THANKS U THE BEST

Al D

AI can never be really foolproof in trading the financial markets. There are always natural disasters, wars, terrorism and obviously QE which manipulates the financial markets. There are too many unknowns in the future. I doubt AI can beat the best traders with good information but it will do better than the bad ones.

Mike Sales

tell ai to teach you english

JOOR

GPT-3 is the scariest right now imagine the developer of AI will be gone soon and replace by AI. Like what?

adolph gracius

Simple, make them train on demo and then give them some small balances

joscaca

LOL ?.. they will not. The robots are as good as the people that program them. AI is hype. Hype and more Hype.

alishihab32

AI in trading should be banned, it's cheating and unfair for investors making it a big tech market not all people's market.

Chris Sun

Ai capital management
3.5 trillion managed by hedge funds
Powerful learning ai

MrCrunchyLolipop

06:50, because the chart pattern hasn't occurred yet, the face is basically the same every time... Just a bad comparison imo

Villain Trader

Brokers are screwed. But thats good for the overall market.

Omar E

Get AI to teach you English first

julianberd

Nice video
I dont think there is need to compare A.l with human trader's

Richard Mao

Just like self drive car data scientists describe a beautiful future in 2018 and told you again it won’t happen in 10-20 years . only naive people will believe deep learning can save the world .

mcoyid

Can you recall that Scene, from Avengers Age of Ultron,

Where ULTRON easily transfers the Money to Ones Account is in an Sec, for buying Uranium.

Lucas Coelho

I believe there will be some good ai funds, some good human funds, a lot of bad ai funds and a lot of bad human funds.

Mitchell Stubbs

Where can I learn to make an A.I trading system

Dr.srikanth Royal

Tedx if you add English subtitles it is more helpful

Mopar1971

As more and more firms adopt (successful and profitable) A.I. algos, the early-adopters trading 'edge' will begin to fade. I believe that a human trader with a good, statistically viable system can consistently outperform A.I. algos, especially if the trader has a deep understanding of how human emotions propel every single tradable move in the markets.

A.I. algos will, however, maintain an unsurpassable edge over human traders in regards to their growing ability to optimize/re-optimize themselves on the fly, in real-time, perhaps down to an infitesimally small level that could allow ultra-fast entry and exit of market positions.

Carlos Elizondo

“If your phone right now can understand your face and recognize who you are why couldn’t it recognize the FX market” I was unsure before but he really lost me there.

Harriet Werner

There are few men who are expert in trading i count Mr Francis as one because of his unique trading strategy

Simisani Moyo

Its going to be an arms race to have the biggest and best chips and robo traders, humans making trades will lose and be evolved out of existence. But how will machines compete? whence will arbitrage come ?

hyou zan ren

No more wall Street's human trader jobs in the future for sure.. .. Just make sure we didn't accidentally create AI owners/masters!! !

Chris Sun

Maximize objective
Deep learn
Economics. Politics

P Mz

A. I. is still under shareholders ownership...Own those companys / A.I and you leverage A.I. work to for you.

Amoy Keishing

Ai is just starting so its a baby. Remember phone, computer,cars,technology when it started all of them were not as good as it is today so I'm afraid AI will be far far more powerful than its today.

ihtfp004

SMH... technical analysis. Good luck with that.

Mark Jonathan

We all know that the question that we all would want to ask this guy is this.


Whats the source code?

yewpoh oh

most people forgot this "
Quantum mechanics

In physics, the observer effect is the theory that simply observing a situation or phenomenon inevitably changes that phenomenon. ex ante vs ex post

Boss Vladtrick

I believe in AI
Numeraire

Thevenver

I'm finding tremendous difficulty understanding his accent. Normal?

Armyman

ahahahahahahaha

Matheus Dal

The problem is that the hedge fund industry is already a failure without the assistance of robots. Mediocre annual returns, risks and draw down out of control during tightening of monetary policies.

Leshrac Banehallow

I've done the math enough to know, he is the Terminator.

peterpandetimmerman

GIVE THAT MAN A GLASS OF WATER!!

Mohak Trivedi

That final quote!?

Chase Ramos

Just take the first beginner AI and flip the chart

Sarah Karen

I trade with his amazing strategy Mr Samuel experience in market trading gives him edge over other broker

S. L.

will be difficult to get a profitable AI for stocks trading, since it can't learn from papertrading, because its missing out the HFTs which donly start to react when you enter. But forex seems doable

Justin Masters

... This is what a human / AI looks like. Soulless. Boring. NEXT.

Calvin Le

Isn't the algo already considered the machine

Manuel

nice

sapitron

I think that AI trading and human traders can coexist peacefully without hurting each other feelings.

jack davis

The problem is here the A.I. is competing against the human traders and their algorithms that trades on risks and expectations. It is as same as putting pro trader against amateur. I want to know what will happen when the A.I. start competing against each other. Will the market stay in equilibrium all the time considering they are equally aware of the same information?

Anubhav Yadav

Every time a trader comes in front of camera & claims hypothetical returns like 982% showing fake Graphs & all, it, cringes me.


No body who makes money in market shares his/her secret. Then, is he so gullible to share such thing ?


or he may be baiting these returns to lure some wealthy people to pour dollars.

AJP

Someone give that poor guy a tictac

Tickeron, Inc.

This is why Tickeron started our mission to make A.I. accessible to every day traders. We simply realized that with the exponential advancement of A.I. it would inevitably beat us in trading short term in the same way that it beats us in Chess.

DEVON BLAKE

I want one!

adamsrj1999

He sounds like a robot

Time&Money

In trading same as in life, only the result will speak for itself.

Lupea Radu

Why does he always lick his lip after saying one word?

Macro Trader

Interesting. But the terminator scenario will never happen for many reasons beyond the scope of this comment section. In short, we don't even have real AI right now. The current machine/deep learning that's being done is weak. There are still a lot of important AI hard problems to be solved necessary for creating real AI. The reference to Deep Mind's Alpha Go and the trading example are Reinforcement Learning. The reservation I have with this is that Reinforcement Learning seeks to maximize some reward, meaning that the model has to perform poorly in the beginning to learn the most optimal actions to take. It seems plausible that if you trade market microstructure that you should be able to use Reinforcement but simultaneously, training a model based on past market movements and expecting it to learn to take trades in the future assumes that the market regime in the future will remain the same as that in the past. You can use AI to trade technicals but you could also build an automated system to trade technicals with no AI. There are mathematical ways of representing technical chart patterns which allows for automation. CNNs are renown feature extractors. However, using Deep Reinforcement to learn chart patterns seems interesting but also like overkill. Combining this with some fractal analysis would be interesting.

Oliver Li

mind your drawdown, man! 700 usd loss is a lot, against your gains

marioalll

A.I in stock markets, that is the most idiotic idea. In the stock market history, whenever some funds use any kind of revolutionary software, ended up causing harm to investors. Look, if A.I is used by hedge funds, more and more investors will use it and compete it each other, so the A.I will have to be updated to keep offering higher returns than the market. It is precisely that time in which there will be opportunuties for any investor who does not use these softwares...these "tech idiots" dont learn how the stock markets work. You can use A.I. in operations, marketing, enginerring, design, etc, but you can not use it in stock markets. The first thing that these "tech idiots" should do is to understand how the stock market works...

Weilong You

If Al is so good, why let it trade just $100, let it trade all the money you can move!

Option Trading Thailand

Wow

Yuling Li

Most of time the profits in forex trading would been eaten up by spreads/fees

Ina Mart

no..AI can crunch the numbers but cant read and process the meaning of news...

Sorel366

The Terminator does not rule over people. Skynet does.

Swift Sheng

This is amazing

McLuvin

A.I. is already here and it will be as revolutionary as the Internet itself.

Goth Pop TV

A.I. will not only dominate, it will effectively crash the economy and simultaneously destroy Wall St. in what will be remembered as THE BIGGEST CASH GRAB OF THE CENTURY.

Spyros

Renaissance has been doing it 3 decades now

ANT18

Detroit Become Human

Matt Nelson

Systems work too well in the favour of a few more than the many now in the communications age we live in. People will find new ideas to shake the systems that be and work them to our favour.
Never under-estimate the power of people... we can change the systems that shape the world and bend and forge new ideas to our favour.
A.I in the markets WILL force a financial system shake up, and with more and more speculators entering the market in droves, a new era of trade may be apon us.
(just my opinion)

Ina Mart

one day a software patch to fix error in AI traders of index funds will crash the market and wipe out trillions.

MrCrunchyLolipop

There is a huge dilemma I would like to bring up when it comes to "AI taking over trading in financial markets". Lets imagine this AI works well, now imagine how many people will try and get a hold of these. Imagine a stock being traded with only AI placing buy and sell orders, what will happen? Will the AI predict what humans would have done or what AI does? Will they cause all stocks to get "perfect prices"? How will they then make a profit, when all traders are made of almost equal AI's?

S Yep

Just another example of a smart man not understanding markets. There have been people making algorithms or holy grails since the start of time, this man will end up like they all did - broke.

Ken Powers

Wouldn't be hard to make a robot out of this guy. Everything from facial feature to physique..would be an easy copy.

Tim Vincent

First of all: 277 % profit in a year trading? That's very low. 2nd: Trading currency is very low volatility = low profits. 3rd: All technologies are based on this universe, so if we understand the universe, we understand the markets (AND can predict them). A.I and bots are helpful to use, IF you understand exactly what they're doing. But if you know what they're doing, why would you even need them? Something to think about. Regards from a Swedish profitable full-time living trader without A.I.

PS: I won't tell my tips and tricks here because I don't support the Tedx platform.

mcoyid

DisEngage all those people, who are building AI.

All Big Tech Giants, Google Apple Facebook Alphabet Tesla

Njabulo Masina

What about companies like Renaissance Capital, 2Sigma and DE Shaw? Certainly these companies employ some variant of AI that they use in their trading/Money Management. The truth is that if you found an AI strategy that worked for you in the Financial Markets, you would not come out and announce it. Rather this is you comparative advantage and therefore you'd like to keep it a secret

XXX XXX

worst TED ever