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Tesla 2030 Series Episode 1: Revenue // TSLA $3,070 ?

14 789 views | 4 Oct. 2020

In this video series

In this video series we'll take a closer look at what Tesla will look like in 2030. The last decade has been nothing short of incredible and this next decade could be even more revolutionary for Tesla.

I wanted to start with Tesla revenue figures as top line numbers tell the growth story the best, IMHO. How soon can Tesla get to $100B in revenue? Can Tesla surpass Wal-Mart and Apple in revenue?

We'll also use the price/sales ratio to get a rough idea of the Tesla stock price in 2030. Please, take all of this with a MASSIVE grain of salt as these calculations are high level and price/sales is only one metric. That said, a Tesla stock price in 2030 in the thousands is well within reach.

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Time Stamps:

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00:00 - Tesla 2030 Series Intro

1:28 - Tesla Revenue Projections

7:10 - Historical Revenue Growth for Amazon

8:39 - Cumulative Tesla's and SaaS

10:33 - P/S Ratios AMZN, AAPL, TSLA & TSLA Stock 2030

*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.

#Tesla2030 #Tesla #TeslaRevenueGrowth

garry G Ballard

Nice job Dylan. ?

M. pm

Great contend, good job.

Bengt Björck

$2k is probably a good estimate. That would mean that the shares are worth $1k today if you can live with a 7% ror.

Brandon Fouts

software compared to high cost consumer product ?
amazon; apple; tesla - business much different - stock comparisons? perhaps

VFX Supervisor

Hey Electrified and the Tesla community.. I found a video that really bashes Elon and Tesla for mining and saying it’s WORSE than fossil fuel burning cars!!! Absurd! They need to make a retraction.. maybe you guys can have a look.. watch till the very end if you can. His closing statement pissed me off as well. https://youtu.be/XIU3ML3xHng it’s the Jimmy Dore show. Please go and express your thoughts to this guy.. I wouldn’t want this kind of thinking to spread. If it does, your conservative predictions will be way off.

francois couture

Great video. Elon said Energy portion of Tesla will be greater than transportation. The 2,8 Trillions MC could be 5,6. Or more... ;) Long TSLA

Electrified

A FEW NOTES:

1) I was conservative here. I prefer to under promise (even if just to myself ? ) and over perform

2) This still has Tesla as the largest company on the planet in terms of revenue by 2030 by almost 2x. Wal-Mart is currently the largest with about $500B in annual revenue

Tesla Dude

The smaller increase from 2018 to 2019. I read though the 2019 Tesla Financials, they talk about the lower end Model 3 being part of the decrease in the increase %. They also said it was leasing, but I did not see that, that was much higher in 2019. I believe it was the lower price of the Model 3's and the lower amount of Model Y and S sales.
It is going to be 10k by 2030 for sure!!!

Daniel Palmer

Hey bro! How is everything? Nice video super excited about 2030!! Was wondering if I'm allowed to ask, how many TSLA shares do you own?

Ronald Atkinsob

Where is the money at. I lost money for the last month and a half.

Michael Ortega

? Man I can’t waiiiiiit for 2030 because I know the whole world will be a different place

Jim Liu

I used 20M cars sold @ 25k, 10% profit, and PE30, got 1500$ year 2030. Very conservative. Kind of bottom line.

Marcus Nichols

Liked before 01:00 because this is such a good idea

Peter Helander

Also, if you j ust take the current share price of $420.00 and put in a 40% growth rate/year for 10 years, you'll get $12,148.00 and Elon said that Tesla is very likely to grow at 50% CAGR the coming 10 years.

Mark Jarvis

Great video Dillon. I think the ramp up/production from Berlin and Texas could be greater than we all think. The new casting and dry cells could mean they’re over 800-1m vehicles out of each. A lot of the production history relates to Fremont which is not in the same league if efficiency. Far from it. Always best to be conservative though. The other thing to remember is how EVs are still less than 5% of the market atm. The demand is going to change exponentially in the next few years and Tesla just need to be ready to take advantage! Thanks for analysis. ??

Jaren B

What's truly insane is this is all assuming no future innovations in area sector of the company.

Life Yang

I smashed that like button.

Irv Lennert

I think your great!

Joshua Kim

likes video when do you personally expect Tesla to be added in the S&P500?

Robert Fox

Thank you!

WillN2Go1

Great video thought experiment!
The $3000/share in the title. Ha. An annual 25% gain will be at least $4500/s, 35% will be $10,000/s. Tesla will surely be somewhere between these two numbers and stands a very good chance of being higher. (Apple has done 25-32% YoY over the previous decade and Tesla has better lead in its markets (cars, battery power, Full Self Driving), and the Semi hasn't even begun being produced (if it works as projected it will immediately capture as much of the new semi-truck market as it can deliver. Semis are 100% a business, no one will buy a new diesel over a TeslaSemi because they like how it looks). And Tesla's markets all start well above the $1000/iPhone ceiling Apple was doing so well with.
But your methodology is sound and highly worthwhile. What everyone should do, especially you Dillon, is keep this video handy and over the next few years see how it's right, how it changes and what, in its limited scope, was incorrect. I think the value of experience is based on error correction and seeing what was correct. It should wind up being a positive feedback loop, with error correction attenuating being overly optimistic.
I could go on; my point is that every indication is that Tesla will do significantly better over the next ten years than Apple did over its last ten ( brilliant years).
Potential downside: Tesla and Musks' stated goal of growth, growing the EV market, zero carbon, etc... profits come after this. So Tesla might put more profits into expansion and share more technology across the budding EV market (the OOEMs (Old Original Equipment Manufacturers) are flopping around. They might produce acceptable EVs, none of them will be FSD before 2030 without Tesla's help. Will Tesla license or donate (open source)?
Eight minutes in. (I know we should hold our comments until the end, write something brief.... but well... I think my nonsense should be interesting. And never ever feel obligated to read my stuff. I do this primarily for my own head, and it's not like anyone is stuck on a long flight sitting next to me.... )
Okay, breaking everything down, taking announced projections for several years ahead.... Well, that's more work than I've done. However, I've invested in Apple for over 12 years now. Early on I made projection charts that I was too embarrassed to show anyone because they were so optimistic. I deleted lines above 30%/year because even I was embarrassed. Then Apple blew the doors off. I'm sure with Tesla we've all had a moment or two of looking at the numbers, followed by giddy laughter and disbelief. For me with Apple it was looking at my chart from two years before and realizing that the actual line was well above my pie in the sky lines. I then did what you did - I looked for another example. Is there company that had this much growth? and for how long? Wallmart, something like 20-30% YoY for 26 years. Amazon as an example for Tesla. I'd say go with Apple - their businesses are more similar. The examples show you what's possible, and at this point 2030 is a pure numbers game. But I like your method. It's better grounded than my method, but I still think my numbers are more likely. (And I'm not wishing. All my wishes were well delivered back in July) Exactly 2030? No. Could be a flat year. (Apple's had them) but 2029 or 2031? Oh yeah. I'd say '2030' is an extremely high probability between 2029-2032. So don't sign a contract for a private jet for Jan 2031, but plan on using up all your airline miles by that year.
Also breaking it down, and using Tesla's (Musk's) projections. They don't know. Elon can't know. And I'm sure they have a pretty good idea of what they don't know. I can speculate on numbers because I've seen this level of growth in Apple and I don't have to do anything except wait. Elon and Tesla have to continue to deliver. Keep in mind: Everything Tesla does that's new has broader implications and applications. Did Apple know in 2009 they'd be in the Apple Pay business? I thought there'd be no Chinese iPhone or Mac market (in China if you have a funky PC you are no more than two people away from getting the phone number of the exact person who can help you (I've done this so many times in China it should be in the travel guides), so why should any Chinese buy Apple? I was wrong. )
Boats. I've been researching blue water cruising sailboats. Here's what I've learned. Multihulls are twice as fast and safer than monohulls, they have more room on board and they don't need hand holds in the cabins. I don't think the Polynesians ever made a boat that wasn't a multihull. But most of the market is still monohulls. Not saying Tesla is going into that market, but the boat market is clearly wide open. All small fishing boats should be catamarans - period. More stable, faster, more efficient... (Camper vans are another market. They are all the same. Watch six cruising boat videos and you'll see six highly effective solutions the camper market and DIYers have missed. Another lesson from this old guy: synergy is an incredible force multiplier. )
HVAC - Almost no heat pumps anywhere. The fresh air intake for a 2400 square foot house is a 3 inch pipe right next to the exhaust for the natural gas burner. It doesn't suck in the exhaust, but it's clearly not well considered. We had a really nice system installed a number of years ago, the filters fit loosely, the pressure in all the ducting wasn't understood, it was fixed after the fact. Definitely ready for change. (I wanted an e-mountain bike. When it came down to it, I was looking at $8000 for a great EMTB that would probably need 2-3 motor replacements during the two year warranty, and would then cost me $1000 every time the motor failed after that. So I still ride my 33 year old MTB, carried in the back of my Model Y - which likely will never need a motor replaced. )
EV production for 2025. That's five years away. Remember Musk said, "The factory is the product." Now look at 2013: the Model S was great, the Model X was on the way... 5 years later the Model 3 rolled out and plans for factories in China and Europe were in preliminary stages. Where was all this in 2013? Under way or under discussion? (This is good. Because of your video and my trying to come up with a comparison, I realize now that 2025 is being planned and projected at this time. It's not limited to shear guessing.) The Factory is the Product means that as the cars got better the factories got even better. A Model 3 or Y have everything a Model S and X have except for 'more' and the X-wing doors, but at half the price. That's the Factory not the car.
"FSD $15000 and 25%." I'll bet it will be FSD 75% and $6000 which will generate 20% more revenue. Right now FSD, which I do, is like driving with your learner permit teenager, a bit dodgy at times, you have to always be paying attention, but remarkable! Just a few years ago I was changing his... (Yesterday I almost got taken out by another Tesla! I forgot to tap the record button. She was using navigation, I was using FSD - I don't think my Tesla would've caught it, or maybe I just reacted sooner.) Once that EV is really driving itself and the driver can take a nap, everything will change. We will be safely napping before it's legal. (Will there ever be ICE vehicles with FSD....?)
Where I'm coming from, if anyone has read this far, is that as things get better, they don't get better at a steady rate, or even at a 'faster' rate - they accelerate. What Tesla has done to the auto factory in the past ten years is not only radical it's also versatile. The robots will be able to quickly reconfigure for the different model types. Where Detroit and Germany could tag VINs and add options, colors, etc... Tesla can make completely different vehicles. For Detroit to make the Model Y change from 70 rear end assembly parts to Two major castings to One major casting would take an OEM a three week line shutdown each time (called a Changeover -I'm from Detroit.) Will the Gigafactories significantly improve in the next five years? Count on a significant improvement over what happened in the past ten.
(David Deutsch The Beginning of Infinity. You should've got it on Audible and listened while you drove to Battery Day. It's based in solid mathematics and the evidence is right now happening at Tesla and Space X, has it happened at Intel and Apple. For me it made investing in Tesla an absolute no brainer. I am enjoying the money, but I don't feel lucky or (all that) smart. Because it is obvious. )
Licensing. Tesla cannot build enough EVs to meet worldwide demand. Because of this it's creating outsized expectations, what I call the Inevitable Tesla Hole or the ITH. Tesla vehicles are so advanced no one will want to buy an EV from (almost) anyone else, instead they will hang onto their ICEs which goes completely against Tesla's core goal of a carbon neutral future. The best solution will be for Tesla to license it's technology to some or all of the OEMs, it'll be like they all now have Goodyear, Bridgestone or Michelin tires. OEMs don't make tires, no yacht company makes it's own electronics. These OEMs have the size, scale and experience to produce and deliver large numbers of stylistically different vehicles that can meet the demand that will still exist. Tesla by licensing, will make a profit, but also quicken the change to EVs. (My governor announced a ban on selling any new ICEs in California in 2035. Nice gesture. By 2025 no one will want a new ICE vehicle.)
Okay. Sorry to go on and on. If anyone has read this far and feels they've wasted their time, let me know.... It's such fun and profitable puzzle. Dillon's Electrified is a great source of information and ideas.

Giannis Christopoulos

3,000 dollars PT by 2030 without SW/FSD/Energy !!! If you include them too then a PT of 10,000 dollars per Tesla share seems reasonable!!!
Incredible times ahead for Tesla retail and institutional investors!!!

Francois Savard

Hi Dylan, nice vid, interesting topic of course. We all agree that should Tesla execute its plan with with the expected growth of 40-50% a year, share price will be high, very high. However, what are the chances that the plan cannot be executed not because of demand, but because of battery ressources bottleneck ? I feel that the Tesla community is discounting this risk. Battery day laid the path, but imo Tesla still does not have a clear and guaranteed access to all the lithium and nickel it needs to produce the 10-20 millions cars + battery packs + megapacks it plans to sell in the years 2025-2030. How do you assess that risk ? How big is that risk on a scale of 1 to 10 ?

Marbles

How many hours does it take to make us this video? Take a second amigos and leave a like.

Who’s MO

I feel a price target between 5-8k per share by 2030 and I feel tesla will be the biggest and most valuable company by any metric by 2030. I have been investing in tesla since 2017 and increased my position every year with 2020 being the most. Super bull and excited for tesla and the future. Lets goo !!! 900 plus and counting and for those who think tesla is over valued and its too late, let me say this we’re just getting started :)

Taz D'vil

1st

HeavenGuy

There is a risk that China turns inward toward a less free market system and the state confiscates at least half of Tesla.

Lazarus Awakened

If we are speaking on just the cars, then $2,000 per share is reasonable. But if you include all the technologies and they will be providing after 2030, I think that is a cheap share... I could see them being way more expensive per share... but I'm being uber bullish.

Ryan Kozak

I disagree with Dillon's "rant" at the beginning. If we all suddenly started "liking" a larger portion of videos globally, the algorithm would quickly compensate for that. Of course, the comment could be intended to artificially raise his ratio, which could help him. Either way, please don't point fingers.
If a YouTuber wants more likes, they should continue to put out even better content, be patient and earn more viewers, or create content that caters to viewers who will "like" virtually anything (cute cats etc).

Frank Dantuono

$$$$

James P

Welcome to the Electrified late night jazz lounge ...

Cowboy Stevo

Dillon with the early Sunday post! Nothing much to add... great video as usual. Well worth watching as several others have said the next 10 years are going to be so incredible! This is truly a revolutionary time in energy and travel!

steven zhou

Let’s say in 10 years there will be a company with market capital valued at 4 trillion (quite possible right based on current Apple value and future inflation ) in human’s history, Tesla would be inevitably the best candidate wouldn’t it ? So that would set $TSLA to be around $4300 share price assuming no more stock split on the way.

John Riley

You always have good content but I think your projection is too low. I think they will hit that price in 5 years. Keep up the good work.

Bert Frank

Well thought out Dillon, Thanks

San N

I don't believe Tesla will grow as aggressive as you mentioned, the growth will slow down as Tesla grow bigger and bigger.

Xavier Castro

Not confusing at all. You did great in explaining your prediction. Thank you for taking the time in making this video for us.

Rami Rouhana

I think they will also license their battery to other auto-manufacturers. They also will couple Boring projects with their cars. The hyperloop is coming ...

Marco Kort

I wonder what Ark invest will come up with..
I just found this from Forbes:
"Cathie Wood and her Ark Investment Management were already well-known for their way-out-there predictions that Tesla would build a fleet of robo-taxis worth $1 trillion and that its shares would soar 20- or 30-fold by 2023. Now she stirred the pot again by publishing online Ark’s new bull’s-case valuation of $1.4 trillion, implying a share price above $6,000, complete with every Excel calculation and assumption behind those estimates. "

Roger Van Brunt

wow safe to say I am in it for at least 10 more years. what caught my eye though was the 15% YoY in 2019 what is your best guess reason for that?? and could that be something we need to be concerned about going forward?
this is a great new series!!!!!!!!!!!!

mm ke

You are being too conservative.

Michele Holley

Thanks for brain food ?

Ken Plant

I think there is some confusion over FSD. Some people don't seem to understand that it's a product offering. FSD does not mean robotaxi ready. A timeline projection on all things FSD would be awesome.

faramarz mokri

1 Trillion company by 2030!
This is mind blowing. As Elon said Tesla will prove to be the most wealth producing company in history.

Ahmad Rafiee Ishak

Mantap

Jason Birchoff

I get the desire to be conservative. But your taper is off. or at least you would have to make an argument for the consequences of that taper. Basically given your model, your saying that tesla is going to either stop selling cars or suddenly have drastically less customers to sell cars to. Which is problematic when Elon himself is on record with pushing out 20 million cars by 2030 if I remember the tweet. with the EV market doing 30 million. The problem is the anual production of cars is between 59-80million anually. So even at those numbers by 2030 your less than half. I could buy the argument that the other manufacturers will catch up. But they have a problem, not enough lithium, not enough nickel, not enough cells. The only player in the market with enough projected cell capacity who has shown a path to lower capex to get more cell capacity is Tesla. So unless we are going to drastically reduce the carmarket from what it is now. Even though we have 1 billion people in china and india and africa. Your projection is massively off.

The only way to reconcile it is to argue that robotaxi everywhere and we will drastically reduce the number of cars sold each year because the number of people who will actually need to own a car will be significantly reduced.

I have no problems with being conservative but you at least need to account for the constraints/ environment the company is in and explain away or include them.

faramarz mokri

Good job thank you. iI really think you know Tesla will reach your $3000/ share way sooner than 2030. Two reasons market ( not analysts) will always look ahead at least 3 years a head if they see a clear path. Two , there will be similar revenue from solar and electric storage . IMHO using your very conservative analysis and considering their future revenue from solar and energy storage alone Tesla will hit $3000/ share in Q4 of 2025 if not sooner.

John Simpson

What about splits??!!

Marco Kort

Come on Te?la, let's ?

Mauro Zallocco

Should factor in share dilution to your model, over 10 years could be around 30%

Wyrdd

Love this video. Can you do one for their Energy Projections?

Miguel Ferruelo

When you say $3,070 by 2030..... That's after how many splits in next 10 years?..... because TSLA Already 10X in last 52 weeks with Pandemic....that's Just being realistic

Dom

I’ve wondered that before about the like button thing...I think, maybe people who are just watching from a safari browser and not “signed in”; it won’t let you ?

Roman G

I have 1,601 Tesla shares. Will be a nice retirement in 2030

Ken Plant

"You are a thief of joy." Haha dude i don't get it. Even if people watch the video twice or partially the rest of viewers should hit the like. How difficult is that?

m Cave

I should be at 100 shares in 2 months...I will keep going until I retire go Tesla!

Malcolm Flinn

@electrified Hi Dillon, I keep hearing people say the P/E ratio of Tesla is too high for a reason not to invest. What would b ur argument against this? Thanks

Data Courier

Great analysis. Usng the P/S is more straightforward and less convoluted approach.
It would be smart if Tesla could find a few more products to sell that they can essentially printed / robo-assembled.
Accelerating the transition of the whole world into a brighter future much faster.

Mark Zunic

Here is my comment to help you out.. lol... great video!

Justin Anderson

Yoo, I know you from Penn State.

Rob L

Don’t recommend hating on your audience within first few minutes, respectfully of course, I know these don’t come together easy, but not our fault

M1kke78

The India tweets were just about starting to sell their product in there. Nothing about a factory.

Miles in AZ

Great video, Dillon, thanks so much.

Delano Jackson

Bro, you are practically a pessimist lol, but love the video as always. My model is more looking like 3-5k in 2030

C Bromley

Very interesting, and good food for thought.

Mike Deere

$3000 per share by 2030 is quite a reasonable assumption. Factor in the fact that tesla will be making additional revenue from solar/batteries etc and $3k will be extremely undervalued.
Also Elon hasn't announced his VTOL Supersonic Aircraft yet ?

Khiem Ngo

cool calculations. Makes a lot of sense. Thank you for doing this.

Tom Karns

Easy to follow your thought process and clearly presented. At what point do you include the Energy part of the business? $ or %, or growth range ?

Leo Rock

Any chance that. The US gov. might break up Tesla by 2030 because of their market dominance? IE: AT&T.

kindog86

New series about the future of TSLA been a $$$$$$company, yes please?

Daniel Brown

Avg Sale price will continue to go down - Model 3/Y LFP models plus $25,000 car. So 50% deliveries growth will not result in 50% revenue growth with the exception of 2022 which will have semi launch and a lot of dual/tri motor cyber trucks shipping that year.

Marc Brody

Thanks for your effort! The "rant" at the beginning is instructional and lets viewers know the YouTube process. If liked that you told us why your are asking and why its important, the targets you need to hit etc.... you are letting us know how "we all can win!"

HeavenGuy

Check out that sweater people.

Igor Tatarević

Just one note - if you start with 2019 revenue of 24.5B and increase it by 30% for 2020 and later by 50% for 2021 until 2030 then it is not correct to state that revenue of 2030 does not include revenue from energy business. Energy and storage revenue are included in 24.5B total revenue for 2019. Correct way would be to start with 20.8B which is automotive revenue for 2019.

Daniel Li

Wow, love your video !!!!! So educational!!! Keep up the good work

V Nelson

Very conservative numbers, IMO, but as Elon has figured out, better to sandbag than overstate. There is a very real possibility of being off by a factor of 10 in reality by 2030 with a share price of 20000. I have seen estimates as high as 100000 with various scenarios.

Ross McKinnon

Dill the Thrill!!!! This is a great idea, you killin it bro

Philippe Ferreira De Sousa

I think that the 50% growth projection from Tesla is in delivery numbers, not $ sales. I think you kind of assume the ASP remaining at $50k to get to your almost $1T of sales by 2030, which is really too much compared to sales of Toyota and VW that are more like $200B.
In 2019, sales grew only 20% because model S/X were cannibalized by M3, so the ASP goes down but the delivery number growth is more than 20%. So you should see the same dent in $ growth in the first year the 25k goes out as the ASP drops and the M# is cannibalized while the new car hasn't scaled.
Also as a scientist seeing numbers with 5 significant digits in results... you know, but I get that you just use Excel default settings.

Alex Cassinelli

Thank you for the projections. Consider too adding in the unknown of solar. I think Ark Investments has a price target of 7000 by 2030 so 3000 seems conservatively realistic.

trey napier

Love the videos! Keep it moving son

Peter Helander

Love it. Tesla rocks. However, WHAT is your take on the coming - for sure - epic GLOBAL market crash as per this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_aRCiorBD4 and other similar ones. I thought the market would crash last year, but The FED just has propped everything until now, but that will come to an end......

Randy Kirk

2020 is probably a pretty good estimate, but 2021 is way understated. If you take Q4 and multiply by 4, you'd have $44B without any Shanhai Y units. So, 2021 should be much higher and I think you also have understated 2022 due to the very things you stated. Could see a bit of a smaller % increase in 2023, but who knows what might be happening with energy by then.

Juan llo

All I see is Tesla keep growing at increasingly unstoppable pace. New mining partnerships daily, I heard Nouveau Monde Graphite (NM9) soon. 3D printing. Megacasting, new stiff wiring harness infrastructure, so many innovations still to be implemented that we keep forgetting.

Lifestyle4Dividends

Just facts right here!!! Love the content ?? keep it up

Marcel Joehnke

I agree with a lot of what you covered, but I don't agree with the P/S ratio of 3 assigned to Tesla in 2030. In my opinion this is way too low and too conservative. I think it will be at least the same P/S ratio as Apple has now near 5, if not even higher at 6-7. Typically there is multiple expansion over the years so this makes sense. In other words, my price target for Tesla stock in 2030 is higher at over $5000. I think we will see another 1-2 splits so this is obviously pre-split. And thereby Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world! ?

Carl Smith

Great work.
Good to see the excessive use of spreadsheets!

Genovacide

This is a very conservative estimate...as you said ;)

B King

I love the hand movements and information. Lol. Thank you.

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Tesla Revenue 2020 (Q4 Preview) - Revenue Multiple Valuation Case Study (+ price target) TSLA Stock

18 858 views | 22 Nov. 2020

In this episode we'll

In this episode we'll learn why I prefer revenue multiple valuations and we'll walk through a case study of TSLA stock valuation for 2020 and 2021. I also include a short term price target for the next few weeks and yet another TSLA stock valuation for 2021.

No time stamps for today's episode.

?? Thanks for watching! Please like, comment, & subscribe.

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My wife Ashley will be creating new designs to add to our store each month. We have chosen the highest quality items available for each different product. We want these items to serve as conversation starters for you to evangelize for Tesla and electrification, not myself or my wife (hence the channel name and logo).

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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.

#TeslaRevenue #RevenueMultipleValuation #TSLAStock

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Don F

Nice video about Tesla's financial trajectory....now if only Wall Street could figure it out...

bitnukl

SP500 and Q4 call with strong guidance could both blow up the ticker even far over 600.

Leon Yu

Can't wait for SP to reach $600 as I am still holding my JAN 15, 2021 $500C.

john harcombe

Warren Redlich thinks between $4000 - $40,000 in 2030. https://youtu.be/NrvN9pq4F9s

WillN2Go1

Well Dillon.... I might say your price targets seem a bit high. I've got projection models for the next ten years stock growth, shares sold for revenue, etc... and a month ago I added a 55% YoY and 60% section...which is not blue skies so much as pie in the sky..... and Yes I know what Tesla did over the past 12 months. But then there was my noob chart projections I made when I first invested in Apple. I had a few steep lines. Two years later I remembered them and took a look. If I'd done these on paper I'd need more paper to show what happened. So yeah. Not at all unreasonable. I'm still laughing since June. The first big jump was wow, but expected for three years. July this year was ludicrous. You're saying next year may very likely go plaid.
On the sobering side. Apple did great over the past 15 -20 years. Since 2010 Apple had a couple of flat years and at least one down year. I believe they were still selling a lot of iPhones.
I think looking at Apple historically is the best way to understand the range of possibilities for Tesla. One exception, Tesla being a newer enterprise, being vertically integrated and, in a broad range of businesses - will very likely blow the socks off what had been the best investment opportunity of my lifetime. But those Apple crunch years, could they happen to Tesla? I think absolutely they will, and I expect to see them. And if Tesla is like an amplified Apple investment, could the gray days be grayer?
What causes them? Tesla as Apple did, is trading far beyond the old valuation models. If Tesla and GM both ceased operations tomorrow and their assets were auctioned off (except maybe for patents) GM's blood, bones and meat would be worth a lot more than Tesla's. So Tesla like Apple is trading on 'intangibles' (You could do a better job with this).
So a general mood, malaise, maybe a year without a major Tesla introduction, maybe BMW adds a hot tub feature... could lead to a flat year. These don't feel good. You don't check the value as often. You wait. Never forget what Warren Buffett says, "So long as the fundamental reasons you invested in that company remain, don't sell." Hold and wait. Eat out less often, work a few extra hours, the Hawaiian vacation can wait. Apple always came back like those gray years had never happened. Looking at the chart I like to project a(n averaging) line through the middle, ignore the peaks and the valleys. It's simplistic, and depending on the scale of the chart, 1 month, 1 year, 5 years the slope changes. Now all of this is untrained observations, but I've got years under my belt. Likely as not there's some better understanding that's SOP. And to support the unwashed and untrained, if you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb he often writes about being a currency trader in London. None of his fellow traders had college degrees, not as many people as you'd think in Swiss banks has them either. It's about on the job training, learning from personal experience, but more so from collective experience. Many successful traders don't even know on a map where the places they daily trade millions are. One guy Taleb knew made a fortune in 'green lumber', not one clue of what it was. "Boards painted green?" There I am going on and on.

Wang Hung

I believe your estimates are incorrect.
By the end of 2020, the share price will actually be $690.420 each.

Zurelia

this video is sick. good job man.

Ant Pel

Tesla daily recycled ?

Julian Sloot

first !

Elektrotehnik

Don't forget to look at the gross profit as well people, it shows you the profit-making potential at that level of scale (useful when comparing to other similar Ev makers).
Q4 deliveries look spot on, +-10K.

radhames jr

Thank you

MikeDrip

??? analysis ... price to sales makes perfect sense for an increasingly profitable company. Thanks for the invaluable and informative content!

TheWolfdoctor

"fewer cars" and "fewer issues", not "less cars" and "less issues" .

Custo

Alas it is impossible for them to deliver all of those cars. There will be a substantial amount of them in transit at the end of the month. Probably similar to end of last quarter). Your estimate is a bit high.

Mark Jarvis

Once the rest of the world catches up to the reality of the combination of the new 4680 cells and Berlin and Texas coming on line then is see a clear path to $950. It’s just a question of when and how quickly. ??

Jan Fm

Great and easy breakdown ? thx

ishac m

Thanks for sharing another perspective on the valuation. I havent heard it presented like this before. Keep up the great work!

David Johnson

Musk fans must all be Republicans if they care about the profits of a billionaire!

Tony

I agree with your analysis. Good video

Miguel Ferruelo

My prediction is $732?

samuelCWM

got a 14000 - 16000 price target by 2045

D J

Dillon thanks for the estimates - if you are off by half I'll still be dancing in the streets!

Predawn

Giga Berlin & Tera Austin are expected to have first completed buildings by Q2 2021. Giga China should be profitable by end of 2020 as well.

deant007

Thanks! Happy Thanksgiving and good estimates! Cheers

faramarz mokri

If we consider and add the revenue the will be generated by FSD software your estimated share price of $950 per share is very conservative.
Thank you for you insight. Keep up the good work.

drew4021

$1,000 per share by end of 2021. this is not just wishful thinking -well maybe a little. Tesla has two new factories coming on line and may even announce and start two more. also we won't have the constraints of covid and a more supportive administration in 2021. I think a government that believes in science and in climate change -will do more for electrification. Shanghai should be up to full capacity and Berlin and Austin should be well on the way. I also predict they will announce and start on two more GF.

unstoppableExodia

I'll be keeping an eye out to see if tesla's share price reaches the price estimated here and not so that I can say "HAHAHA YOU WERE WRONG" in case things work out differently

PIPERBOY WILLIAMS

Man. You’re a talented youtuber

Allan Perry

Dylan: Interested in taking a "BIG JUMP" by looking at Tesla's 2018, 2019, 2020 numbers and shooting a GUESS at numbers at the end if 2021??
Might be a good video and have a lot of "views" Just a thought......

Justin bartley

I remember summertime when the stock went from my $800 buy in,to $2,300 within a matter of weeks,so on this basis,incredible price jumps are a possibility.

Understanding

950 in 12 months is certainly possible, but I can see beta going down once added to all the main indexes, and given a slightly lower multiple in the long run...my price target for Q42021 is only 12xPS at $750 (slightly lower revenue than yours as well)

Good work BTW, love your video. In any case all these are just fun exercises as I will not sell a share even if it hit $2000 next year. I shall sell half of my shares once Tesla sells more cars than VW :)

Duane Turgeon

I am basing this off the comment from Elon that they would support Berlin for batteries with their pilot line in Freemont until their own bat line is running.

Marc Brody

Dylan- Clear and concise. Appreciate your videos. I always learn something. Thanks for making a (***for education purposes only) prediction. It really helps me to construct my own model. You da man!

James Hoffman

Revenue is where it’s at. It’s not the Internal GAAP Net Profits Service.

UFO TRAILERS

I really liked your simple clear math on valuation relation to PE relation to forward your end stock value of $950. Keep it up ??

James Mulligan

Look no further than the Austin build to see why Tesla will dominate.
I am 100% behind the mission. Cars are unreal (own 2), battery business just ramping up, insurance to come.
This is about sustainability. Tesla is dragging us all into the future.

VS Code Tips

Personally, I would not be surprised if Tesla will go up to $2000-2500 between Dec and end of Jan. What is nice... Elon would become a richest man in the World thanks to that... at least for some time. Why I think this will happen?

Combine effect of Tesla News:
- ofc... SP500 inclusion and amount of shares which need to be bought by funds
- record sales numbers in Q4, hitting pre-covid target
- deliveries of Shanghai Model Y ahead of schedule
- wide release of FSD and tons of press coverage
- recognition of deferred revenue for FSD
- huge amount of FSD profit generated by new about last price increase
- record profit margins in Q4, over 30%

Plus combine effect of Elon Musk related news:
- Boring Company opens tunnel in Las Vegas (more media coverage)
- possible first 15km hop of SpaceX Starship

Plus combine effect of negative news of other OEMs:
- still no Tesla Killers in 2020 - weak VW ID3 sales numbers => VW as biggest competitor of Tesla is super weak
- Nikola stock should finally crash (dec 3?). Maybe they will bankrupt finally

Did I miss something? :)

EV or not EV that is the question for my next ride

The old adage of “We lose money on the sale, but will make up the loss in volume sale” will likely apply to legacy auto. That is, some of them will go belly up.

Imran Sabir

This buyers eyes fraud be careful plz snp500 nasdaq game over

T F

Thanks Dillon

truepatriot

I think once the cybertruck is out on the highways next year Tesla will easily hit your projection. Thanks Loomis!!!

Quantorful

In the future I suggest you change the colour you use for your estimates in the chart you show early in the video. That light orange colour has low contrast with the white background, which makes it more difficult than necessary to read. Go with a darker colour next time, even if it's just a darker version of the same orange. Always use dark text colour if your background is light, and vice versa. The contrast is very important for readability.

Duane Turgeon

Thinking $950 base case for 21

Michael Schulze

I think we will hit at least 600$ around December 21st when S&P500 index fonds will have to buy Tesla either on that date and S&P500 benchmarked fonds will want to buy Tesla sometime in December or early January. If things get crazy we might see >800$ before christmas.

There is a perfect storm brewing with the S&P500 inclusion followed by a potentially way above wall street expectations Q4, on top of 40 billon US-$ worth of shares being sold short at the moment. Those fonds will have to or want to buy Tesla shares equaling 100-180 billon US-$. That would be 25-40% of Teslas current market evaluation and way over 50% of the theretically available float. Substracting a lot of ethusiastic Tesla share owners that are glued to their shares, there may not even be enough shares to fulfill those orders. Add a short squeeze on top of that and things might get really crazy. Market valuation will have to rise to a level, where either fonds and institutional investors, that have caps for max percentages that one stock can be valued at in their portfolio, will have to sell some, or some people will get "greedy" enough to part with some shares. I think for that to work itself out, Tesla share price will have to rise to somewhere between 600 and 900$.

That the NYSE is thinking about adding Tesla in two waves on the 14th and 21st, which never happend before, tells me that they think this might get crazy too. As fond as Elon Musk is of Wall Street, I do not think he will issue additional shares to soften the situation and instead observe and enjoy them squirming.

Wild Bill Arizona

My questions is:
When will Tesla earn profits so large that they can't spend it all and decide to pay dividends?

I fully expect a future share price of $10,000, or so, if Tesla continues with their plan and executes as they have. I think we all foresee (mostly) world-wide insurance, solar, battery, ride share, Robotaxi etc. What about HVAC, smart watches (to sync and control, summon and monitor person while driving etc the car and other devices), or the infotainment revenue stream?????? I can't imagine what the revenue from insurance, Robotaxi, infotainment, and Autobidder will be let alone the sales from cars, batteries, solar etc! I will continue to purchase what little I can afford for some time.

Also, consider my shares NOT a part of the float! I WILL NOT sell my shares before 2035, PERIOD! I expect dividends by then and to die owning my shares!

Jsmith

what are the price to sales ratio of similarly sized companies with similar growth and similar gross margins?

Who Why

Agree with your analysis.
Although I think Tesla will probably grow car sales by 120% in 2021.
Energy related income will more than double also.
But probably best to be conservative.

Jirai_YT

Thorough ty

Noob lade

670$ by 21/12 is my target

joscaca

Revenue Multiples are one of key metrics when you are valuing a Growth Company.

It’s also a key multiple in M&A, along with EBITDA multiples and EV multiples.

Jeffrey Browne

Not a single analyst, nor fanboy, not even level headed super analytical Rob Mauer was able to see the possiblity of the current valuation of $500. Even Cathy Woods of ARK invest was short.

No one could of guessed a 8x valuation in 365 days. Your valuation doesn't include "nothing but margin" FSD money, solar ramping, insurance....

I think we are heading into a year of jaw dropping valuations. And your numbers are on the low conservative, I don't want to sound like a zealot, valuation.

Prepare to be amazed.

Josef Göller

Q4 will be a monstereous is respect to earrnings: I expect 2 Billion$ and with the tax credit trick even 3B$

Damian Lund

I guess and are afraid that shorts will become extremely active after rising due to inclusion, seeing it as ultimate opportunity and not seeing any big catalyst in close future. Many fresh players will lose lots of money, especially those waiting for big returns in short term.
I hope I'm wrong ?

Allan Perry

If you do....a "projected" stock price would be AWESOME

Timothy Parker

These numbers are in line with my model +/- a bit.

Unreal Trump

Very simple and clear content, ths

AnotherSKYWALKR

I’m thinking $600 around the 21st of December.

john harcombe

Love your logical way of looking at things

Allan Perry

Sure.....I should watch it to the VERY END....before making comments! Lol. Thanks Dylan

Philips Louis

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Mauricio Sedano

Liked it but it seems a bit too optimistic. Hopefully some bulls run along

Tesla revenue growth

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Teslas WILL Increase In Value With FSD

29 300 views | 20 Apr. 2020

Elon Musk is claiming

Elon Musk is claiming that if Tesla can crack the full self driving car problem, that Tesla’s cars will go up in value. So long as Tesla’s cars like Model 3, Model Y, and so on are hardware compatible with Tesla’s FSD software. Then over time it may be possible for Tesla’s to increase in value... This would very much so help Tesla Stock.

AWildBard

Teslas is a plural noun. You don't need an apostrophe for plural nouns.
Not that too many people will notice, but it's in your thumbnail.

Ionor Rea's Spam Generator

Tesla won't be selling 40K cars for 100K just because they may finally have a useful autopilot that can earn money simply because there is a competition that will be producing cars with autopilots too and... wait for it... even much cheaper ICE cars with autopilot apart from selling VERY cheap ICE cars without any autopilot (from around 10K euro in Europe for taxi suitable cars) that would still make more sense to use with multiple drivers than buying an electric car for 100K for a taxi. How you even think you will be competing with underpaid Uber drivers driving in cheap ICE or hybrid cars while using some overprized 100K Robo taxi that can't even properly drive to your destination if in build navigation actualization lagging behind reality, nor will be Robo taxi able to understand foreign accents for years which also mean it will be quite useless for tourist that did not know even name of location they are heading to properly... Both manned and unmanned taxi will be there for decades with a reason and while many will prefer Robo taxies over suspicious Uber drivers, for tourism it may not be the ultimate solution for years/decades to come. Robo taxi will not help you with luggage nor give you some local tips, etc.

d b

Robo taxi so far away, hard to see the value currently
New MY on order, no FSD

Oliver

i don't think many families have 1 car per person most families have a car for each adult and then if there is a teenager they might have an old car but an old car they pay like 5k for max

The Big Picture

Not likely.

Nyla's Dad

NICO, you're spot on my friend! Great Video! BTW. @6:14 NICE BODY WRAP PPF candy apple red with dark smoke fade on the Tesla! FIYA!!

Eric Ratzlaff

Do you think the price of Tesla vehicles would skyrocket (if not Tesla cars then FSD functionality) once true FSD is achieved and the Robo Taxi network becomes a reality? Also, how many years away are we from true FSD in your opinion?

jeryart

ONE ROBO taxi can do the work of 4 cars!!???? Do you realize the stupidity in that comment!!!???

Meng Lee

I actually enjoy driving. I'll never get a Tesla. Lol.

Luka Ellegaard Jensen

fuck man, I don't think I can afford a tesla now.

Hitesh Garg

Don't mean to sound rude, but it feels like nowadays you are producing videos which have the same content juiced down from your previous videos. Don't just make videos for the sake of it brother, create them only when there is something exciting

Jerry B

Tesla bull channel

Robert Henry

The market may bifurcate with Tesla selling cars to individuals with no FSD at say 40,000 but also sell FSD cars for say 120,000. If you want to be in business you pay more. Best of both worlds.

Adam Iverson

The only reason why FSD will increase in value is because of the ability to monetize the robotaxi. However, if we were to have a "personal" version of FSD without the ability to monetize the robotaxi, how much would that really be worth?

Robert Sterner

Tell ELON to get back in contact Lord Musk he has got my no.. and remember 2020 44 VISiON the ball is not his..but i love his ball"

deant007

5x usage and 1 million mile cars interesting..

Thi Thanh Dai TRAN

With F ? Why SD ?
It has been quite a longtime that we explain what is nothing, everything, something and something else...
Roof is roof, walls are walls.
Real estate is real estate, furniture is furniture.
All those things make a house.
There are things that can be in the place of another one.
There are things that can not be in the place of others.
There are things that we can buy and sell.
There are things that can not be evaluated in money.
Otherwise there would never be today !
Hope that helps ...

SonofaGib

5:47 "Tesla is a corporation who's goal is to make a profit"

While making a profit helps to keep a company going, this is not Tesla's primary goal. Their primary goal is to push the transition from diesel vehicles to fully electric vehicles, which they are doing a pretty solid job so far.

63Kanal

I think, tesla is rather trying to bring to cost of his vehicles down rather than up. Not many will want to rent out their own cars, simply by discomfort. People generally tend to want their own: they dont want to rent an appartment which would be much more efficient, they want an own house. On the other side, RoboTaxi will be successful but it will simply drive the transportation cost down in general. It will be more likely, people dont even buy a car because these new transportation methods are so much cheaper. The expensive part of taxi is the driver after all. This will go along with Elon´s vision of an more efficient and sustainable future.

Stock Talk with Eli, Ph.D.

EVs is slowly changing the world. FSD will change the world once again.

Warmachine1080

So you think they will charge more money just because they can save people more money? So if a model 3 with FSD added on now is worth say 60k. You think in the future they will just bump it up 40k more for that reason? I don't think it works that way. Also, I would never pay 100k for a car. And I HIGHLY doubt 99% of people would. An average family has 2 or 3 cars. You can get good cars for 20-25k. That plus maintenance would maybe add up to 100k. But that is for 3 cars rather than having to share a car with everyone in your family. I respectfully completely disagree with your views here.

Charles

A tsla share is a call option on autonomy with no expiry date and no premium

Tony

Great sharing. Thx

Augustus

The fact that a fsd vehicle could have a 100k value doesn't mean that they would sell it at 100k. It would be an argument that makes no sense. it's not like a pc someone uses to do business on it it's sold at 100k because after 1 year of use the person using it is making 100k worth of deals/research/sales or whatever. also not everyone would allow others to use or sit in their cars even if fully autonomous. so it would make no sense to sell cars at 100k only because 25% of people buying it would use it as a taxi, in fact they would lose 75% of their new sales. the point musk is making is that buying a tesla with fsd it could be a long term investmen that eventually can lead to a 100k return for the buyer.

Scott Mohrman

I don’t know if I would lend out my vehicle to others to use.

chilly willy

I don't see how fsd would work in a major city like san Francisco! especially changing lanes and turning when there are so many people still driving. you have to be over aggressive before people would let you in a lane and it would take so much longer. in suburbia I see it doing much better

Joe O

End of self driving taxis when they come home with cigarette burns in the seats, headliner sprayed with paint and smelling of vomit!

TankingShaman

inb4 rootkits for tesla to install pirated FSD %)

Graham Brown

Absolutely agree Nico, and it ties in with Elon's statements you mentioned and also "you are buying an appreciating asset".
Has there ever been a new car which has appreciated in value?
The FSD option has already increased in price and goes up to $8k in June, probably due to the latest enhancements.
FSD will probably be a $30-40k option when complete and given approval.
Tesla has $750m in deferred revenue for previous sales sitting on the balance sheet.
Wish I had your brains and perception when I was 19 Nico ?

B Rod

Why invest in a Tesla when we’ll all be uploaded into them in the future anyway?

_BRCooper

I always hear people say they don't want to put their Tesla on the Tesla Network. That's ok but they're going to have to turn down very lucrative offers to buy their car from people who will. This is why Teslas will appreciate in value even for people who don't want to participate in the Tesla Network.

westerntui

Defeats the purpose if you have to pay 200k for the income, it counters the profit.

Jayman

The problem is... Tesla hasn't demonstrated anything near Robo Taxi levels of capability, if you're talking about a car that just makes trips to anywhere, in the general area, on demand. If FSD is a solvable problem I think Tesla is well positioned to get there, but I'm not ready to accept this robo taxi fleet as a real possibility until we see some basic city driving demonstrated at least. IMO if Smart Summon is any indicator of the overall state of the technology in low speed driving.. yeah it's not looking good. At least not yet.

Oliver

no their goal is to accelerate the world to a sustainable future keeping the cars for their own taxies would just undo that

Investing & The Like

car's aren't just parked 95% of the time , they are a mobile lock up box.

Mike Oskam

I disagree. As Long as I have a Drivers License, I don't Need FSD, and would by a COMPETITORs EV without FSD. Probably for less than 30.000 USD.
Increasing the Price of a Tesla would see private buyers Transfer to the comeptition, and Teslas would be used as Taxis only. That would even allow ICE cars to continue to exist.

Tesla P85D

I drive Tesla only since 2015 and it's my 3rd one now, I love them but, I have to disappoint you. FSD it's just a marketing story and will never happen. 15min in the snow and radar is blocked an even in the rain cameras are out of order. I just don't see people order robotaxi and standing by the road cleaning cameras;)

RICH PUBLISHERS

Hard working guy

Back2basics 59

It makes perfect sense what you are trying to explain how a Tesla will increase in value. It also betrays the fact that Tesla will break our hearts in the end for money. If you are dating someone with expensive tastes and who you know for sure will dump you for the next guy with more money, why would you then invest anything in that sort of a person?

Ramon Benito

I will no longer purchase cars if there are robo taxis in our country. It is a no-brainer.

Nicholas Sapp

I like your videos and ive become a believer in Tesla

Kjetil Korsveien

Will there not be a supply surplus of robot taxies after some years driving the price down for a trip.

Data Courier

Robotaxis in the form of cunsumer cars being shared is only an intermediary step.
Look what happened with Uber:


1) Entrepreneurial people have started buying cars and making small fleets when it was profitable.
They found people that would drive your cheaply, so the price went down over time, many complained.


2) The field is now dominated by mostly people who make their living this way, so your car would likely get less use, as the professionals will make it more appealing to use their cars, or there would be so many of them that the price would simply get much lower.


3) Next, Elon's mission is not to make you a ton of money, but advance humanity. There will be a special robotaxi car made for fleets.
At that point, the prices will be so low people will increasingly stop buying cars and you will sell the second one you bought because you thought it prints money.

Boris Simeonov

seems like i will be biking to work in the future

halo force

Tesla’s fleet for fsd can’t be to be to big . Logistics of cleaning and inspecting say 200000 vehicles would be costly and overwhelming. Shit who knows maybe Tesla could manage it. Lots of individual owners makes more sense . Each owner takes care of all the details such as cleaning and inspecting .

Wi Fine

FSD is optional tho. So if they want FSD they can pay extra from over the air update

Big Tech Insights

Great video Nico!

George :]

Good man

Richard

nobody is going to pay anything for working FSD unless theyre a fool, its software. you license it. nobody cares about the car of all things. you want to flood the market and get market share and put your competition under before they can copy it. you want every tesla in existence driving asap.

Bee Marine

Right on the spot Nico, well done ? That is why i bought plenty of Teslas in my Companies.

James Hoffman

Amazing how few people understand #FSDValueAppreciation. Good for those who do, and can avail themselves to the $100 investment (eg: RWD CyberTruck reservation)

Rohit Khatkar

I am confused what is their autopilot. I paid $5000 when I purchased and now they are asking $4000 again for autopilot. If they increase the price than less people will get autopilot. It's just marketing news to scare people. Market is going to slow down and their car prices will come down drastically like Model 3 price was down by 10k.

The car is more enjoyable when driven by human rather than autopilot as humans needs to take control every few minutes.

Their super-chargers are also not cheaper than regular petrol. Charging time and increased cost of supercharging has almost made Tesla expensive as compared to non-electric cars. Tesla cars are good as long as charging is free otherwise regular fuel is better as Tesla cars loose charges just while parked idle and actual better usage in regular daily like is 60-70% and takes forever to reach 100% and heavy bill.

Michel Bruns

Which family of 4 has 4 cars?

Hieu Do

The initial assumption in this video is already wrong. The average household have 1.88 cars. To start with 4 cars is a ridiculous starting point.

Tom Ludlow

Teslas, not Telsa's

Crazy Alien

95% of the time is parked and it's inefficient?
well everytime i drive my car it loses value and adds more bills.
Tires brakes oil kilómeters for next inspection etc
4 cars = 120k = 1 tesla
Well all i can say is most families have different works in different places that start at the same time.
One car can't solve that

Noel Gibson

Self driving cars fail to excite me, in fact, I'm rather concerned about them. We have enough of vehicles you just sit in.......they're called public transport. Cars are bought to be driven.
I agree with the concept of electric cars, and where they will lead us, but self driving cars in the wrong conditions could be dangerous. Yet to be convinced of their merits.

Jason S

Well I hope Tesla is fully in auto insurance by then.....cause I cant imagine what an "robotaxi's " insurance is gonna cost.....letting your car go out, driving on its own...., picking up people.....you would never make enough to cover a policy like that

Jacob Palomares

Great one nico have a great day

M Doc

I don't think people are going to fork out $100,000 for a car that is worth $50,000 and then share it. Tesla has had a tough time getting the market and investors to buy into Tesla in general. Sharing their car for self driving in a huge step past that. You may see it but I am not sure how many others will. I think they will pump out cars themselves and do the FSD. I personally like to drive and would be too nervous to be in a car that totally drives itself. Driver assist is one thing but sitting in the back seat and having a computer drive is still too much of a step for me.

Nelson Macy

I agree with some reasoning such as value / income of a robotaxi. Disagree that then Tesla charges $100k per car. That is not Tesla goal and other ev manufacturers would undercut Tesla for people who just EV. Ice would then resurge as they would be cheaper. That is the OPPOSITE of Tesla mission. Rather Tesla continues to lower cost of EV, charge for FSD and CHARGE Uber/Lyft fees to join the Tesla network. Don’t confuse these two different product/services and revenue streams. We are not there yet for this to not be a flawed strategy. A video showing how Uber and Lyft are doomed by robotaxi would be worthwhile. Use Toby Seba ‘s data and framework. Warren Reilich sp? Too

MikeAIright

Tesla still needs us to buy and use them as robo taxis because they need a place to recharge.

SilverSeraph100

You are ignoring human psychology in this. The average consumer is not going to want to pay $120K for one car even if it replaces 4 cars. Dad will want the car he wants, mom will want the car she wants, and Sally the daughter will want the car that makes the statement she wants to make, etc. Being a gamer, I think it can be likened to the way consumers will not buy a game console more than what seems to be the magic price of $399. When the PS3 came out for $599, no one would buy it no matter how much they liked the PS2. What I see Tesla doing is manufacturing commercial grade vehicles, essentially boxes with wheels and no steering wheel, etc, to serve as taxis for the Tesla network. They may offer the software upgrade for consumer vehicles for the premium price, but I don't see it being a requirement.

Kyle

Keep it up man. Great content

Aebis Decunter

Damn,I bet with 20+ LY Frame Shift Drive it'll be great.
Sadly, it's not Elite Dangerous

Nate Synik

Family of 4 don’t all go to the same place at the same time.

Paul J

So the point here is we are not meant to buy them, only utilize them. The 'value' makes more sense in that context.

Investing & The Like

tesla are a fair way off FSD ? am i right?

Deans n LiPo

I only need FSD for when my parents get too old to drive, when I’m too tired to drive, have a car to pick me up when it’s raining hard, give me a ride if/when my health restricts my driving, giving other people rides if they need it and whenever I like to relax. I’m not going to overpay for software that I plan to use just for personal or family/friends. I would not like to use my car as a taxi after seeing the conditions of others taxis.

Facundo Varela

FSD Tesla 100k, sure!!! ... just due to inflation and the time that will take to actually pull it off.

Vasu Jaganath

I think regulatory burden will decrease on FSD due to the experience of lockdown now, you still need emergency services to function in times of crisis. My near term worry about regulatory burden for FSD is alleviated due to this crisis. Long term same outlook.

gaussdog

Great video, can’t wait to see what you have to say about a potential “cash for clunkers” program that the government may use, and how it relates to Tesla!! ?☝️????????

Elijah Madonia

Which type of family owns four cars?