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Straight Talk #13

12 904 views | 8 Aug. 2020

Join three well known

Join three well known market analysts Guy Adami (CNBC), Dan Nathan (CNBC) and Sven Henrich (NorthmanTrader) for the latest episode of Straight Talk discussing key issues impacting markets every investor should be aware of.

For the source article with further details please see:

https://northmantrader.com/2020/08/08/straight-talk-13/

For access to detailed reviews of market technicals please visit:

https://northmantrader.com/market-videos/

To follow on twitter:

https://twitter.com/GuyAdami

https://twitter.com/RiskReversal

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader

https://northmantrader.com

Chris S

I really like this weekly video, but would also prefer some pure Sven-only content like his old videos. Don't even need all the charts, which I imagine were a lot of work to put together. Even a Sven podcast would be good.

Shingen Takueda

And with the stroke of a pen, this video is outdated. Trump just signed executive orders to extend the government stimulus program through the Treasury department. Congress did not approve and he will probably get sued. Wow. I was wondering when he was going to spend the $1.7 trillion he had sitting in the Treasury General Account. Now we know. The market reaction on Monday August 10 will be "interesting".

Dakotah Moses

I really appreciate this show guys. It’s become a Saturday morning staple. Thank you.

Michael

Guy: Please aim some light at your face in order to improve your image on your videos.

SashaXXY

Is there any market sector besides precious metals that's actually rallying on fundamentals? Would be nice if you folks took a look at it. Gun and alcohol sales are up. Anything broader than that?

Conscious Observer

Real talk, nice episode ?

Premier Study & Investing

Miss seeing you guys for week 14, so what the hay, I will give a rewatch to #13. Rest up fellas. Have a great weekend everyone.

Dean Graves

Thanks guys for the show. Trump is not going anywhere and all hell is about to break loose. Even the Fed will step aside. Trade accordingly.

John Cruz

30 year auction was very very telling

Newf Guy

Dan is blinded by leftist Trump hatred

Thomas Drechsel

Great content guys. Appreciate your weekly input which helps to keep focus in those turbulent times and markets. I’m totally with Sven. What we are seeing is another boom and bust cycle allowing to accumulate more wealth for a small circle of people. Retail investors are being sucked into this market and will ultimately have to carry a heavy bag when markets start realizing that fundamentals do matter.

Nate Mistsniper

To dan the corona virus infection rate has risen but will the deaths follow? I think not. The reason the unemployment rate for the us is so high is because we had low unemployment before and that we are a service sector economy. There are very little manufacturers that arent automated. The president is an irrelevant part in all of this.

Leroy Brown

The amount of money that was just printed has not circulated in the economy yet, these prices now are nothing compared to what they will be 2-3 years from now. Inflation is the goal of the Fed, why are you fighting an up hill battle? Yeah, you might get a correction here and there, but that new money has to go somewhere. Buckle up, I’m going on the ride.

skynetsworld

No new episode because of summerBreak? or because the markets still going higher? If it's the second, we probably won't get a new one for years to come :(

Derek Pape

I love this show so much, guys. I truly feel like you guys are straight with us and cut through the bs. I'd be very happy if these came back; I've really missed your weekly updates over the past few weeks.

Don Green

Is the chat series over ?

Danny Calley

N.T. ..............not since the 60s one the 3 favorite power trios is back ,but I still miss Cream and Jimi Hendrix experience !!!!!!!!!!!

MrTonifumi

Some are predicting a bond market rally in 2 weeks which will strengthen the dollar (milkshake)..... What do think and what does it do for stocks and the economy?

Jamby7

Where is this week's straight talk?

Rising

thank you for the content guys, really appreciate it !

The nihilist

Even though I feel Dan and I wish what he was saying was true I have to agree with Guy after the Steve Merchan press conference I sort of feel like the Dems have overplayed their hand and giving Trump an opportunity to beat them to the left of populism

Tony Albany

Great Job guys another great week!!.Sven .I think we get you think the market is overvalued here just like last week and the week before.. Where are those wonderful charts you always have? that might help some of us going forward..You dont have to give up the farm just a few key technical levels to look out for..

Matt G

Market has not seen more than 2 consecutive red days since the rally started in March. Relentless is an understatement, predicting when it will end has been futile.
Also, psstt... please stop talking about the double spx top, keep it quiet

Leroy Brown

I love D Nathan but the hate for Trump clouds his vision sometimes. lol How will he spin the win Trump got Saturday afternoon? That executive order might not be passed through, but it was a win for his campaign. Tune in next week!

half- galician

Loser's Lament, should be the title of this series.

Charbel Bacha

Great episode! Thank you! Could it be temporary since investors are flocking in tech so they can earn some dividend, because bonds are not paying?

Ed Groff

Look forward to the three of you and your thoughts and comments, every Saturday am. Very thought provoking. I gather there is the thought....Well! Maybe it is different, this time. Hmm! Seems to me I've heard that before?

George

How can you point out how a weaker U.S. dollar makes our goods more competitive without mentioning the impact of prices of imports, especially given how much we import (e.g., your dollar will not go as far at Walmart or Lowe's or, alternatively (or both), margin pressures and lower earnings for retailers)? Come on, guys.

Joe April

Dan is anti Trump, end of story

JSYK

You guys are all super smart and down to earth. Such a good talk, I loved the discussion about whether this market will never turn bearish again. Because this is what all the people are thinking at the moment. But hey Dan has a good point, maybe this economic world has changed forever with MMT.

Fredrik Pettersson

Thanks again for another Great Talk!! ?

dh heg

Every Saturday morning I watch this show. You guys help me to understand the market noise and the market fundamentals in a clear way. Thank you. Keep producing such quality content.

Will Tham

A puzzle piece to add on justifying the Nasdaq valuations. https://twitter.com/business/status/1292376834844381184

MrBob2k99

Dan's rant just put in the top good job ???. Love the weekly videos

Wael Osman

Sven is a rockstar

iancaseydouglas

As long as there are shorts trapped below, pack hunter algos will continue to buy, because there's a guaranteed bid in the form of panic buying as bears puke

Mark Fitting

August 29th update: Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all-time highs. Dan Nathan's analysis of the market is wrong and will continue to be wrong as the Dow goes above 30k to a new all-time high before the re-election of the best President in history Donald J. Trump. The Dow Jones closed at 28,653.87 on Friday on it's way to 30k+ before November 3rd. I look forward to your charts Sven. Please make more chart videos. Thank you.

Kelvin Han

... No a single chart for today? Kind of disappointed... But the sharing was fairly good. Keep it up

Dr. Ulysses Swlabr

Valuations don't matter right now for the FANGMAN, but there are many examples of other stocks taking big hits for poor forward guidance. God help us if Apple has a miss. They've moved up almost 200 points since the Goldman "downgrade." LOL

Will Tham

Thanks for continuing to have these talks. Always looking forward to them. Strangely enough, I find they're like comfort food. Stay Safe and have a great week.

pdxreddevil

What happened to this show? It was keeping me sane after watching the stock market behave irrationally every week. Come back!

Ronald McDonald

Somebody asked me if AMZN is a good stock......well...yeah.....good luck.

justin tyme

@2:40 Dan, speaking about Trump, says "there was an article in the NYT" ..... I think it can honestly be said that the NYT does not practice honest journalism but has a narrative to promote.
Sadly, many of our institutions have gone off the rails and do not deserve our trust any more than daily gossip or National Enquirer.

amit111978

Have they stopped it?

Kevin Morgan

The "campaign" is irrelevant: very few people are undecided. Why is the gov't using "unemployment payments" when what is needed i s a FEDERAL JOBS PROGRAM to put people to work to invest in and improve the country: elderly care, social services, infrastructure, education, you name it. When are you guys going to analyze the fundamental thesis of MMT, that the proper regulator of government spend is NOT "deficits", but the inflation rate and inflation rate of change? The US is becoming a hollowed out shithouse nation as a result of operation of the gov't by an oligarchy: failing infrastructure, most expensive health care with the worst results, vast spend on "defense" with no significant benefits for the country while 1/5 live in poverity, an education system that used to be the envy of the world that is now crap. A gov't that has zero problem SPENDING to give away $1.5T to the corporations and top 2% with no concern about impact on "deficits", adding $50B to "defense" spending with zero concern, but spend on the PEOPLE and the the commons for the people? "How can afford that?" Take these issues on please. The stock market is obviously purely socialized now and not really very interesting or significant to the common citizen. The gov't has committed to NEVER letting it fall, and that's that.

Paul Griffiths

Great to see the three amigos back for this week, a must weekend watch. thx

sian williams

Thank you for being real

ian otto

Thanks guys! It must be exhausting sometimes having to pontificate on the markets all the time, you guys are doing a great job keeping it together!

John H

Is it just me... or does Dan sound obliviously idiotic?

Jonathan K

Dan goes on a rant about ‘Not paying attention to the markets’ because they’re just going to go higher, so why bother. Isn’t that the absolute definition of market complacency? Even our esteemed pundits are getting complacent, sounds like like we might be nearing a top....

Lee Murphy

US stock markets and the parasitic speculators who feed from this trough completely ignore the catastrophic state of unemployment in the US. The total number of people on state or federal unemployment insurance has grown this week to a eye watering 32.12 million. Week 20 of the collapse of the US labour market shows how detached from reality are the speculators of Wall Street and the corporate politicians in both parties. They are setting themselves up for a big fall in terms of massive social upheavals over the next decade. Never mind the coming war with China which the Trump regime keeps pushing towards full steam ahead. The war mongers of both parties think that China can be bullied into backing down from its goal of becoming a hi-tech manufacturing hub for the world. They need to think again or prepare for war with China.

mason andrews

You can tell dan is spent lol take that vacation

Solar Coaster

I bought some SLV March 19, 2021 Calls @ $29 strike back in mid May and have been accumulating physical as usual. Aside from that I've cashed out of what little else I've made in the Stonk market and took the stimulus plus other savings and went all in on a 90 dodge dually dump w cummins 12v, tree climbing gear/saw, mortar joint repair tools and a 32' ladder. SBA Funding secured for my newly created series LLC and a goose neck tandem axle dump trailer purchased soon.

Joe blow BOOMER is completely tone deaf to the plight of the 20-50? Million undocumented people here in this country. I've met many of these people over the past 17 years working a wide variety of W2 and 1099 jobs. They'll probably be getting pissed off soon if not included in the free money bursts.

Hdiesel503

When is the next episode?? with the S&P near the peak, would love to hear your thoughts before the possible drop.

Kathy Sutton

Great as usual.

Chris Moise

Future topic, as Guy finishes up about future inflation, is the game plan for continuous Fed printing. If you look at the hyper-inflation of Weimar Germany, it was from government overprinting to deal with the debts from WWI. The only families that retained wealth were those invested in real estate, hard commodities/metals, and private businesses that generated cash. So while I totally agree with market valuations, one now has to look at what retains the "value" of your portfolio in this accelerated printing world of money. Have already invested in gold and not a bitcoin fan, but looking at other alternatives that may include stocks as a way to offset the excesses of central banks. As I watch real estate spike in areas that I own homes, I see others looking to use low fixed rates to move money into a hard asset. So while we look at charts today and Sven does a great job with his service looking at past cycles, adapting your investment strategy to this accelerated central bank world seems like the $64,000 question.

Brian Richards

keep making these. really strong, thoughtful commentary

noah mccormick

Hahaha Dan is such a trump hater ?

Jeffrey Raff

The level of rationalization has reached epic proportions. This is absolutely a repeat of 2000. I've never seen so many intelligent people explain why this behavior is completely rational. Great episode.

Mark Fitting

Sven. Where are the charts? This is your channel and you are the chart master. If I wanted to listen to Dan Nathan opine I would watch CNBC. The market will continue higher until the election and the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq will all be at new all-time highs before the election. I don't watch CNBC but I hope you will make a video with Dan Nathan the first week of November so I can watch him cry when President Trump wins in a landslide. Thank you for your videos but please add charts in all future videos otherwise I'll come back in November because listening to Dan Nathan is a waste of time.

Simple Trading

First straight talk video talking about all doom and gloom on May 9 and Nasdaq was 8900ish. last week close was 11100+ , I do not know what to say. ANALYSTS... lol.

EternalBreton82

I think Dan is watching too much CNN and MNBC. You need more news sources than that in order to access the political situation.

Steve Stacy

Lol Dans comments like the audience here doesn’t pay attention to the markets. Pretty sure the audience here does. This isn’t the nightclub crowd.

Mickey Rat

29:26 That’s a good title for this episode “It’s a Fantasy “ check out Aldo Nova’s song. You guys forgot to talk about trade. Let’s cover China ?? next time. Thanks!

V

Fed printing trillions a month and these experts still can’t figure out why markets are ballooning. “Experts”

Bryan C

Sven nails it!!!! If the markets crashed 20% on Monday they'd have a stimulus passed by noon on Tuesday.

Let's Talk About Money

“The president’s socialism ... uh ... aid for the farmers...”. Yep - Trump’s socialism is real & goes only to his chosen voters.

Joseph Knurek

poor Dan, stuck in trump hater mode, costs him a bundle already in many ways.

UcantBeSerious03

Thanks guys for your time, very much appreciated.

Shingen Takueda

Sven, I miss your one man market update shows. I've been a long time fan of Northman trader because of the A-POLITICAL market commentary and information. The Realvision interview you did with Raoul Pal was a breath of fresh air. Last week's Straight Talk episode was pretty good, but I wish Dan would just stay on vacation. If I wanted to hear politicized market commentary, I'd just listen to MSNBC. Irony.

1988Allnatural

I think most of Sven's followers are quite queued in on the technicals of the S&P but bears have to be patient and wait for a trend change and stop trying to call the top. Once the top is hit there will be plenty of meat on the bone as we haven't established much support on the way up. There are intra-day flash crashes under a bid-less market. At one point the dips wont be bought.

Dharmin Desai

Market is ready to go down ...all / any stimulus possible by Fed n Govt is done now ... Congress is on the leave until sep 7 and fed is out until Sep15.
Market is going down and going fast starting Aug 10. Let's make some serious money.

BonFire

I feel Dan for sure on the frustration of having to comment daily about market moves that make no sense but happen anyway. What I would like to know from all of you is 1) how you guys are going to position , rebalance or rotate YOUR MONEY for 2nd half of 2020 2) what do those of us with a lot of sideline cash in our money markets do for a better NO RISK return?

bikbiks

How did apple made ridiculous number of iPhone sales during National Lockdown? Because huwei coming after apple beating samsung, they had to cook number?

Jim

The fundamentals are the fed buying up corp bonds and bailing out corps so they are able to roll over their debt . Share buybacks have increased again according to FT.

Cool Hand Luke

I remember when Yahoo was $500 plus !

Patrick Hare

Great content, as always. Thanks for sharing!

skynetsworld

thanks for the episode ?
Slowly but surely i am arriving at the point, where i think that the markets will never go down again. i mean really down, not only for a dip.

Les Rebbeck

Any more updates or is it just a summer break ?

William French

2nd week in a row dan misrepresents things. Europe has a higher number of furloughs than the usa...which dont count as unemployed. Wolf Richter covers this.

Sandeep Philipose

Why did you guys stop straight talk?

D James

Fortune comes to those who wait patiently.

Thank you gentlemen!

Jelle Brinkhuis

Dan and Sven talk about 'MMT' and they did not even take the time to figure out what it is.

William French

BTW Dan - the dollar going lower really hurts American citizens.....

vietimports

the banks know whats coming. they always know

Mark Johanson

Will this be about the time to go short? ?
It looks like the last three remaining bears are giving up and embracing that higher is the new paradigm.

I agree with Sven and Guy that sooner or later there will be that "unforseen event" that will challenge the control of the bulls.

Enjoying the show as always, hope you guys can keep on doing it for a long time!

Bernhard Goller

I think the markets are probably discounting some kind of crack-up boom here. It may be technically possible for the authorities to let stocks and commodities rise endlessly through freshly printed money, but at some point this policy will be reflected in falling purchasing power in the world's paper currencies.

jack johnson

The Corona Virus is not the problem, it's just the pin that pricked the Federal Reserve’s credit bubble. The economy was collapsing before the Corona Virus. But instead of a correction to fair value, our government will ushering in New World Order Fascism and Communism with endless bailouts from a Central Banking Dictatorship so American’s can die in debt slavery

Joe Sclafani

In the end they are right about risk management, know where the support and resistance levels are and buy or sell from there. The overall market will continue its crazy dance no matter how insane it may be.

Mark E.

Another great episode of intelligent and interesting perspectives. Thank you

Sunny dH

First time, short time.. I would watch a 3 Amigos reboot with you guys. *80s comedy, not more recent hip hop dudes. Although..

Jonah Levine

I love guy, he's one of my role models, one of the only people in the mainstream financial circle that can actually tell it like it is and has some sort of a background in Austrian Econ. Great episode all

Derek Watt

Start with the concept that money is now free, then go from there...

Dharmin Desai

Look at the longtime chart ... Nasdaq100, DJI, and s&p all are either coinciding with 9-11 line or dotcom bubble line or both.
Enjoy the market meltdown starting Aug 10, 2020 Monday. ?

swamiluv

Its a fun chat, you guys are trying your best, but its irrational and no one has a clue. Sven will be correct one day, but he is wrong for 4,000-5,000 of NQ points or 65% of the rally. Prices fluctuate prices will come down and go up its the law of nature.

fallen angel

When was the last time you were on CNBC !?!?
?

Forrest

Thank you for your truth telling. Sven tells from experience and technical perspective, Guy from a facts only perspective and Dan helps us out here in the middle of the country understand the ultra liberal mindset of the coasts. Again thank you.

James S

The Equity Market has become Woke. Fundamentals are a construct of Western Imperialism, and it must free itself of this tool of oppression.

sian williams

Back in the house best three dudes since sliced bread

browse deweb

Wouldn't it be refreshing if most of the mainstream financial networks spent time on similar analytical discussions about current market conditions and the fundamental inherent risks based on historical valuation metrics? The propaganda and narrative seems to be so tightly controlled, the entire paradigm of the corporate media agenda should be suspect. Twilight Zone alarming.

Northmantrader

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Sven Henrich: FED Out of Ammo

37 035 views | 26 Sep. 2020

To subscribe to our

To subscribe to our newsletter and get notified of new shows, please visit http://palisaderadio.com

Tom welcomes a new guest to Palisade, Sven Henrich. Sven is the founder and lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader. Sven outlines his corporate background and what led him to become interested in chart technicals, macro market picture, and trading. He has developed a reputation for being highly critical of central banks.

Sven discusses past market cap to GDP valuations. During the tech bubble, it reached 150%, and at the peak of the housing bubble 135%. Afterward, the ratio collapsed to 75% and 50% respectively. We have entered a new era of permanent central bank intervention with the advent of QE "emergency measures." Today, market participants understand that central banks will print more whenever the markets begin to correct. In February, the market cap to GDP reached 154%, and now after trillions in additional intervention, we are at the blow-off level of 185%. The highest market valuations in our lifetimes.

He discusses the indicators for XVG stock weighting and the VIX. The VIX may be revealing a risky period through October and November, and it's possible markets have topped out for now.

Sven says, "There is not a central banker on the planet that will say enough is enough.. none of them are willing to admit the risks they are creating." There are massive demographic problems today that have no solution.

The dollar has had a breakout, but it appears to be nearing a pivot point. He is currently neutral on gold, awaiting signals from either it or the dollar.

Time Stamp References:

0:58 - Svens background.

3:30 - Svens better half.

4:22 - Marketcap to GDP

9:40 - Dangers to retail investors.

12:50 - XVG index for relative performance.

16:20 - VIX direction from here.

20:00 - Is the Fed out of ammo?

23:50 - Downside risk in the markets.

26:55 - Can they correct wealth inequality.

29:50 - Seasonal Fall risks

32:05 - Outlook for the dollar.

34:20 - Gold expectations.

36:50 - Short-term expectations and politics.

Guest Links:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader

Website: https://northmantrader.com

#SvenHenrich #NorthmanTrader #Fed #CentralBanking #StockMarketBubble #Liquidity #Gold #USD

Big Maky

Inflation isn't coming until the FED goes from "lending powers" to "spending power".
QE is NOT money printing. We are about to have a massive deflationary event.

The FED, through QE, creates reserves on behalf of the banks in exchange for debt. Member banks use their own liquidity to buy debt. That debt is then "sold" to the FED but instead of giving the "money" to the banks, they place it in reserves on behalf of the bank. Those reserves are NOT legal tender. They cannot be spent!

Even when corporate bonds wind up on the FED's balance sheet, they still have to be serviced! It's not like the FED forgives the debt. So this idea that corporations or the government is getting money created out of thin air is ridiculous. Reserves are created out of thin air. Money is lent into existence. Even the credit facilities are loans using special purpose vehicles design to bypass the primary dealers.

The FED does not have the power to spend directly into the economy. Powell mentioned this the other day. The FED can only create reserves to be lent against. If there is no lending, in excess of repayment, there is no money being created. Money is destroyed when loans are repaid. In a debt based economy, debt must expand beyond repayment for "growth" to occur.

When we borrow, money is created in the economy, when the government borrows, they do so from existing dollars, thereby shrinking the amount of liquidity in the system. That is deflationary. QE is deflationary (see the link below from the St. Louis Fed).

Bank lending standards are at ’08 levels despite what may hear in the news.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM <- middle and large firms
https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/03/bank-lending-standards-and-loan-growth/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCIS <- small firms
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

The reason QE "worked" before is because everyone believes it's inflationary. That causes people to spend and borrow. Powell even said the other day, "Forward Guidance is our most powerful tool." i.e. "Getting you to believe something is our most powerful tool".

QE is not going to work this time. What will? Making those bank reserves legal tender!

In order for the FED to actually create money and spend, the laws will have to change. For congress to change those laws, they will need a historic monetary crisis.

The FED needs an massive deflationary event so congress can sell this (reserves becoming legal tender) to the public.
The real crash is coming. My guess; congress/Trump/Senate will be blamed before the election. Biden will go after a long and volatile contest designed to stoke rage and division in the population. And then they hand everything over to the FED. The public narrative of the democratic party is one of social and/or welfare spending. Many of the bills introduced in March ( see below) are designed to replace lost GDP and cause massive inflation.

The FED, through negative rates, will phase out paper accounts and absorb the private sector banking system (see IMF paper link). All banks will become an extension of the FED through “FED Now” and “FEDaccounts”. In that bill, banks and credit unions are reimbursed for their expense of setting up these accounts and being an extension of the FED. In rural areas, lacking banks, the post office will be used.

These new digital dollars that the FED creates will look and act just like the paper money in your bank account but later, after your paper money has dwindled away due to negative rates, the digital dollars can be programmed to expire or only work at "participating retailers". That way they can direct and control spending. If they want inflation to go up, they can cause your money to expire sooner.

In the bills below, once the FED is authorized to create money and spend, there will be free smart phones, WiFi, $2,000/mo UBI, no rent, no mortgage payments, no commercial loan payments and no credit reporting among other things.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15224.pdf
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3571/text
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6321/text
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/6321/related-bills
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/third-quarter-2017/quantitative-easing-how-well-does-this-tool-work
https://frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow/what-is-fednow.html

Justin Ferguson

What do you mean ? They just bought billions of rounds of amo hallow points.

Aloha Traveler

His overall view and analysis of what drives the markets is outstanding. One of the Best economic interviews I've heard in a while.

Kishore Duddekunta

isnt this guy a perma bear who sells subscriptions

Zaddy

“170% market cap to GDP is usually not considered a bottom.” Check out his twitter for hilarious quips and gifs.

TheCanMan Can Since 1990

$WVE squeeze of the year

Burkhard Dahms

It's a Zombie ?‍♂️ economy. ?

jj H

You like many simply do not understand what is going on. The FED cannot create inflation as it has no mandate to create "money" as many believe. When the FED speaks it is aimed at the public or dumb money and you like many have fallen for their scam. Only banks can create money by lending. When the FED does QE or so called "prints' it takes assets from the banks, (treasuries, MBS, gov agency debt) and these assets are then part of the FED's balance sheet including the income streams that once were the banks. The banks get their accounts credited which they must have at one of the federal reserve branches with digital like IOUs which cannot be taken out and spent as the FED has no mandate to create MONEY. This then becomes part of a bank's reserves either REQUIRED RESERVES, IORR OR EXCESS RESERVES, IOER which the FED pays the banks currently at .01%. This is an asset swap which the only thing banks can do is borrow against this from the FED and loan out into the real economy if they wish. Banks can then create loans which creates MONEY and then liquidity into the system and if the velocity of money increases you then get INFLATION. The FED only has a few tools to stimulate the economy as again it cannot create MONEY. One is to lower rates, more people will borrow, more MONEY is created and again if the velocity of money increases enough you have INFLATION, no increase in the velocity, no increase in inflation which we are talking about DEMAND INFLATION, two is lower a bank's reserve requirements and if banks lend more and people borrow more, more MONEY is created and we are back at number one, or three the FED buys assets from banks like today, (QE), and banks borrow from the FED and lend and create MONEY and back to one and two again. Banks are not doing any of this and in fact are increasing lending standards, cutting line of credits like equity lines, demanding higher down payments, etc as they do not want to lend under these economic conditions as the economy is being destroyed by the lockdowns. Banks are buying treasuries instead and keeping some and selling some to the FED. As existing loans are repaid, no new loans are created, and the FED is removing assets and income streams from banks they are creating MONETARY DEFLATION and this shows up int he FRED data weekly in loans made, the velocity of money which has all been decreasing.
Now the inflation bullshit by the FED! The FED is buying $120 billion of these assets a month and at the end of every month they are still short their goal and the remaining must come from the market. Treasury sells debt, primary dealers and foreign central banks are buying it all, banks buy from primary dealers and again they keep some instead of lending and must sell the rest to the FED. BY the FED jaw boning, lying or propaganda or what ever you want to call it they must convince the public, the dumb money INFLATION is coming, rates will rise so sell your treasuries so banks will buy so they FED can then meet their goal of $120 billion a month. The reality is the FED is removing assets and liquidity from the system, banks are then not lending and creating money so NO DEMAND INFLATION CAN BE CREATED.
The inflation we see in the real economy is being caused not by DEMAND INFLATION by the FED or banks but the intentional lockdowns worldwide has destroyed millions of jobs and businesses and WHOLE SUPPLY CHAINS in almost every sector of the economy especially commodities and food as farmers are being destroyed. This has created shortages in everything but especially food as this is one item people buy on a continuing basis is most notable here. This is COST PUSH INFLATION and NOT DEMAND INFLATION. Another thing is the oligarchs like insurance, health care industry, utilities, etc. are all raising prices as they can and get away with it. Most people and businesses have little choice and all are mandatory. Rising gas prices will follow later as wells are being capped, supply chains disrupted and even in Texas which had over 400 wells now has only 100. Big oil is going to make up from the lack of demand and falling prices by creating their own artificial shortages just as they did in the 70s with the so called fake Arab Oil Embargo where prices at the pumps spiked and you could only get gas on odd/even days based on the last digit of your license plate.
Now another thing is that the FED has been doing currency swaps with foreign central banks as dollars and treasuries are the backbone of the international system as all of these talk. This banks would not be loading up on treasuries, (again look at he FRED data weekly) if they thought that the FED was going to create INFLATION, RAISE RATES AND HAVE THEIR TREASURIES WORTH LESS TOMORROW THAN TODAY. The FED is also trying to help wall street who owns large amounts of equities and they follow Armstrong Economic forecast a major correction is coming before year end. The FED, wall street, banks, the so called gurus are all trying to give the ILLUSION INFLATION is coming and equity markets will keep rising as they try to create liquidity in US equity markets by the PUBLIC or so called dumb money and unload on YOU! It should come as no surprise to anyone if you understand everything above that market started to get hits just as soon as the FED made their INFLATION BULLSHIT SPEECH. They have continued with the FED stating they are going to buy $120 billion a month so as to "KEEP MONEY FLOWING TO HOUSEHOLDS". Again if you read above and understand it POWELL IS FULL OF bullshit as the FED is REMOVING ASSETS AND LIQUIDITY FROM BANKS, BANKS ARE NOT LENDING CREATING MONEY AND LIQUIDITY AND THIS CREATES MONETARY DEFLATION AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO THE REAL ECONOMY AS LIQUIDITY AND CREDIT DRIES UP. This is how the FED, wall street, foreign central banks, banks and the so called wall street gurus screw consumers and businesses by lowering rates even more destroying savors and pensioners, destroying businesses and the economy by not lending!
Now the net has been full of bullshit the dollar will collapse and most come up with the nonsense because they believe incorrectly the FED creates MONEY which I explained above they have NO MANDATE to do so. Read the FEDERAL RESERVE ACT is you do not believe me. Or better yet listen to Steven Van Metre a financial analyst that makes three vids a week on youtube and explains what is happening, how the FED works and going thru all the FRED data like M's money supplies, loans by banks, who is buying treasuries, etc. Most also base this bullshit using the outdated dollar index based 6 currencies on outdated trade data and currencies are trade weighted. Armstrong Economics using another method with 14 currencies has global trade is different today than when the old dollar index was created. Theirs shows just a simply consolidation and will move much higher in the future as the dollar will gain unwanted strength. The dollar is not going to lose its currency status anytime soon or collapse. The dollar and treasuries are the backbone of the international financial system and there is simply nothing to replace it at this time. There are trillions and trillions in dollar denominated debt around the planet and all this must be repaid in dollars. 75% of all international financial transactions are in dollars. China has been issuing dollar denominated bonds and their private firms and provinces have all borrowed heavily in dollars. Hell last year along they paid over $1.7 trillion in servicing the debt. International banks make loans in dollars and this must be repaid in dollars. The US has the largest and most liquid bond market on the planet and any currency that is going to replace the dollar must have also one and there are none. China is at least 10 years away, the EU has no central bond market where all members share debt, UK is too small, yen is restricted and no one wants to hold Canadian or Aussie dollars, not euros, nor pounds, nor yen nor anything but dollars. Can you really blame the international system for this. Hell China said they were going to unload $200 billion in treasures but Van Metre showed the latest data, they sold 1 billion, that's it. They would be stupid to sell if these assets are going to be worth more tomorrow than today as explained above and the Chinese are not stupid! It is all smoke and mirrors. The MSM and the net is full of people who have no clue what is going and most of these are gold bugs like Peter Schiff who for 10 years has been preaching QE will create massive inflation and hyperinflation and the US will be forced back to a gold standard. All bullshit again he still believes the FED creates money out of thin air and the fact is they can't. The dollar is the most hoarded currency on the planet especially in Europe which is one reason why the FED has been doing currency swaps supplying dollars to the world. Only banks can create MONEY by lending and if they do not lend, no new money is created and then as said before MONETARY DEFLATION WHICH WILL EVNEUTALLY CREATE DEFLATION ACROSS THE ECONOMY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COST PUSH INFLATION!
RAN OUT OF ROOM MORE BELOW UNDER REPLY

Sara Kess

Bank of America sent the alarm this morning on their earnings. Low rates are causing losses.

Patrick Wieland

Bitcoin is a remarkable cryptography achievement and the ability to create something that is not duplicable in the digital world has enormous value.

patty sizer

I'd like to know what he thinks of 5G.

Debra Legorreta

What a load of crap. The FED is not running out of ammo.
Everybody gets the FED wrong because they confuse their own personal goals with those of the FED.
The FED doesn't give a shit about liquidity. That's your problem Sven, not the FED's.

The FED doesn't give a shit about wealth inequality, either. Powell said as much, but you refuse to believe him, because you're projecting
The FED cares only about one thing: deflation.
You may think it's injecting liquidity for the purpose of greasing the gears. You're wrong.
Until and unless you look at the FED from the deflation point of view, you have no idea what you are talking about.
Any talk about Bezos an food lines, any talk about the strength of the economy is interesting, but irrelevant as far as the FED is concerned.

So how you say the FED is out of ammo when you have no idea what the FED is trying to do?
Fact is giving money to corporations didn't work; all they did is leveraged it and horded the financial down streams, a deflationary result. So now they're going to try another approach at managing deflation: giving money to consumers.

Jeff Genitempo

What a joke! New Found Mining (gold) get 93grams is about 3OZ derived from 2,000lbs

ddkrew 1

One could justify Amazon market cap..but Tesla? Outrageous...

randy osborne

So why has Japan never collapsed?

Warren Buffett Dividend

Sven Henrich is always short, that makes him look smart when he is actually stupid, how much money he loose already?

turbofanlover

Outstanding vid.

Burkhard Dahms

Silver ? is pretty cheap. ?

Xmod

They still have their main tool: The Fed Bluff

Jon Thor

COFED-19

Vincent Valens

USD devaluation due to money “printing” means little if all other countries are doing the same. The bigger threat to the usd is China’s move into becoming a reserve currency.

hightonesdrifter kent

I can't believe that at this late in the game, the powers that be can still clobber the silver market at will.

Jillian

Not out of ammo, there is the new fed digital system, universal fed dollar and fed income, implemented already set up by the pandemic and we will go digitalised soon. They own this planet.

MegaLangosta

It's gonna be worse than the great depression.

Kevin R.

Buy silver and gold bullion on this dip today now.
Time running out

Jeremie Roy

When I hear " the dollar is defending itself" , its like if I heard my cordless drill that I have at home is defending itself: it makes no sense: it's an inanimate object

Nvestment NU

Out of ammo?!? Fiat currency is infinite opposed to money which is finite. Mr henrich failed to mention a solution but then again he's part of the status quo...

ddkrew 1

They are buying up all the refinanced loans like mad.

Felonious Bitcoin

You guys should check out my latest video, a woman in Ohio was tased and arrested at a football game for not wearing a mask.

ddkrew 1

The fiat is faithbased system and we the people (the 98 % they didnt print all this money for) have lost faith.

Joachim Peiper SS

AGAIN AS ALWAYS, SUPER GUEST. SUPER INFORMATIVE !! THANK YOU PALISADE RADIO !! ???

Billy Bob

He isn't telling people anything they haven't heard before. It's all artificial!

keroine9

Why is James Hetfield talking about the Fed?

John Lee

At this point I'd rather own physical gold and silver.

Spencer Tba

This.. "The Fed is out of ammo" = Bearish, sell everything and go short video was posted on sept 26th = S&P 327. We are now 383. THat's a 15% short loss in just 4 months. Lets face it, Northman is a pretty darn good S&P contra-indicator.

Dominik Balko

FED out of ammo? FED is a bullet factory!

Jay S

Sven is a cowboy in the market, losing others' money in the past. Get him off this show

Ride TheCurve

It would be so powerful if there'd be some charts to compliment Sven's discussion. Sometimes, when visual charts are discussed, a podcast just doesn't cut it.
Just my Humble but Very Accurate Opinion....lol

Jerome Newton

Ages old game. Stir the market in an election year and make their percentage as “investors” buy and sell.

Reagan Westlake

I love the Sven. Always level headed and sensible.

Jongbong Kim

They have 2nd stimulus package, YCC, and buying stocks...and fake vaccines. Be careful with betting on bear too soon.

Fitz Jr. Campbell

Amazing content, I first saw this guy on revision and he knows what he is talking about.

David Garvey

Nice

Rajeev Jain

Please don’t blame individual investors, it is the funds who have access to financial data and continue to invest instead of selling off and return money to investors. Why would individual investors sit back when funds are buying?

washabi nutter

Ever try to sell 1000 ounce of silver bars? You can move $100k btc in minutes

Neil Currie

Well spoken, Sven

nobullshoot

Alot is hinged on the dollar. Metals and mining for one. He sees near perfect chart pattern for dollar breakout. Metals get hammered.be forwarned. Yet he said a metal retracement will be bullish. But in a completely rigged market ... didnt say anything about bonds, the third leg on this stool.

Carl Schellhammer

Sven says vi sa vi way too much!!

hedge hog

Gold is overpriced, as soon as the dollar starts rising again and deflation get worse people will probably regret buying gold at this price. I love Americans worrying over the dollar and the “money printing” by the FED^^ the FED can’t print money, only primary dealers can print money when they lend into the economy. The Fed only prints bank reserves that doesn’t enter the real economy unless banks, companies and people turns the tap. The whole system is messed up and a debt based monetary system is just broken to begin with. If there is no lending growth there won’t be inflation and considering the state of the balance sheets of companies and people I don’t think a lot more buildup debt is possible.

General Stack

Fed and the ultra rich class think they have infinite ammo

patty sizer

Stock buybacks used to be illegal. They should be illegal. They are unethical.

Chris Eustace

With the Fed playing high stakes Poker what chance the ECB supporting the euro ?

Batman

Palisade

koundamanee

Out of ammo from 2008? Look at their success with covid depression. Stop whining

Dan Reynolds

It's all BS. It's a manmade game and when their latest folly is out of steam they layer more BS to encapsulate what is not working any longer. They've got all the markets by the balls through manipulation. Algorithms on a continual swirl. What's up is down what's down is up. Don't worry! Soon enough they'll have a monetary fix based on a new slant for what it is that ails you! I'd like to know how many of those money market magicians have ever held an ounce of silver or gold in their greedy little hands?

phil durre

This man really knows his stuff, big thumbs up!?

Jimo225

Everybody owns or can own stocks now because of "no fees" and "fractional shares" so if your not benefitting from asset inflation its your own fault. EVen the drug dealing homeboys with uninspected cars can buy stocks but they more interested in sniffing their profits up their noses.

Jacob Gambler

If Russia invaded America I would take the Senate 5 months and counting to send aid.

Hitting4Contracts.com

Enter 'The Fed Is Out Of Ammo" and the same type of people are predicting the same thing a decade ago and about every year since.

ddkrew 1

87% of stocks, xvg and metals is owned by whom? What happens to the charts when you remove institutional money from the charts?

Kevin Rowland

There has to be tons of regular people that own funds that own stocks in 401Ks and IRAs

Christopher Dennis

Kindly consider editing out your verbal ticks.

Dale Holmgren

"What's gold going to do?" "May go up big. On the other hand, may have considerable room to drop from here." "Thank you for nothing."

ChrisP

As smart as Sven is, he's 100% wrong about 2 things: 1. That we've been in deflation for past 25 years, HAH. You still believe the skewed government headline and core inflation numbers. They under report inflation by about 800 basis points...Chapwoodindex.com and john williams shadow stats, listen to what they have to say about the ridiculous statistics games and mental gymnastics the BLS has engaged in since the early 80's to lower the cost of living adjustments they have to make towards social security and government pensioners; 2. That this isn't the fault of the central banks - it is. Central banking, legal tender laws, fiat currency and fractional reserve lending is legalized theft of economic energy from the masses, which has caused massive inflation of the cost of living year after year, while wage growth has been relatively stagnant

Foo Ling

He keeps saying he has a podcast, he used to have one with Adami and Nations, but I can't find it now.

Armed Resistance

I hate the term “markets”. There hasn’t been a market with real price discovery for a long, long time.

j b

Listen to all, follow none and form your own opinion!

Joseph Spurgeon

Sven is one of the GOATS

Ronald Ingleby

Soon comes the crash...probably by Christmas 2020. Grub, gold, silver and Monero will be the only safe havens. Governments worldwide may/will introduce a world digital currency. Food shortages due to solar minimum and the covid 19 scare are rising. Martin Armstrong recommends buying canned foods and growing gardens...gold will drop and then rise when the crash comes. Bitcoin and all the cash cryptos will be outlawed by governments to not compete with the NWO digital currencies. Silver coins pre 1964 will be recognized for barter. XMR Monero can be used outside the system as it is untraceable.

Art Rahman

Gratuitous profanity sadly.

Burkhard Dahms

The banking index here in Germany ?? / Europe looks dangerous weak. ?

Peggy Clarkin Harkness

Sven had a chicken shit moment when he denied the FED is to blame for the huge gap in equality. Doesn't want to be arkancided i guess LOL.

Mark n Lynette

Get this guy back again! Good plain talk!

Sue Warman

Given the fascism rolling out across Australia, I think your Advert is in very poor taste!

InfiniteSpiritualPresence

DANA ASHLIE Sep 2020: BRACE YOURSELF! Coming to America & The World OCT/NOV: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8G-VSz0ez1Q&t=418s

US Rep: "Food Shortages Are Coming" - Crops Destroyed - UK Limits Purchases
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guxFKUnynQs

kulturfreund66

I think the only solution to wealth inequality is heavy taxation of the rich and ultra rich, riddance of all
loopholes,
tax havens,
off - shore - business - scams,
the CFMA
resurrection of banking and stock market regulations, first and foremost the Glass - Steagall -Act

phil durre

IAgree with everything he says, but what can you do as private investor, hold dollars, or euro, while centrals banks do nothing but printing whenever things go bad,...

Dubya

2,000 pound grizzly bear Sven Henrich ?

sparcx86 Channel

starts the video with a god damn terrible gold mining advertising.
are you kidding me?

Rajeev Jain

Sven, even you cannot predict stock market movement correctly so why mislead people. What you are doing is only analysing past stock market behaviour.

Christopher Dennis

Did retail investors create the bubble back in November and December 2019? Or in January and February 2020? Don't think so. Did retail investors create an unprecedented 10 year bull run? Don't think so.

Cheap Laugh Kennedy

I’ve thought that at least since 08 . No way their out of ammo . The debt has been inflated so far beyond imagination it would have crashed long ago . They can literally do whatever they want to.

Jim James

I really luv high IQ guys. Thanks much.

Paradigm Shift

Bullshit no one could see it coming, look up "Event 201" published in Oct 2019... The Powers that be ran a 'simulation' of pretty much this exact senario unfolding... They saw the projected GDP losses and they underestimated too... Trust me they all went Short in Feb and are stealing the wealth of speculative retail investors. They are prob not looking at buying back in until the Dow is at 16,000 or lower. JMHO

Jay S

Sven is a cowboy in the market, losing others' money in the past. Get him off this show

Ant Poo

Sven’s thumbnail pics always have me picturing him as the villain in a Clint Eastwood spaghetti western movie.

Movie star looks ?

Northmantrader

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A conversation with Sven Henrich, founder, NorthmanTrader

2 820 views | 14 Aug. 2020

The age of the new day

The age of the new day trader has come about at an uncertain time for the world and the markets, meaning downturns and upturns are fleeting. Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, is an expert at reading the macro signs of the market. On this week's episode of The Scoop, he cautioned against continued interventions by the Federal Reserve that have kept the new generation of traders from a prolonged bear market.

Henrich's firm provides macro views and technical analysis to its subscribers, and on Twitter, he's been highly critical of the Fed's actions in recent weeks. He's been raising the alarm of coming consequences due to what he sees as the central bank's refusal to take on any pain. On this week's episode, he broke down macro events in the time surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, touching on:

- Why continued market interventions could create stresses that investors might be overlooking in a strong tech market narrative

- What the growing divergence between gold and tech stocks means for economic growth

- Where to allocate capital as governments debase currencies and real interest rates drop

- Why bitcoin isn't a hedge against the monetary side when you look at its price action

- Why the next two months are critical for the strength of the dollar

This episode of The Scoop is brought to you by Bitstamp, the original global cryptocurrency exchange. Since 2011, Bitstamp has been a cornerstone of the industry, earning the trust of over four million individuals and top financial institutions looking for a reliable trading venue.

Whether you’re trading on our web platform, mobile app or industry-leading APIs, Bitstamp gives you the professional-grade tools you need to execute your strategy. Download the Bitstamp app or visit Bitstamp.net/Pro to learn more and start trading today!

Luke Willington

great work being up more than 4%, having a dividend yield of around 7% and making some good option plays it seems like you’ll easily hit 12% per annum with Allen Vaughn and his investing style you might want to do dividend investing through your retirement account as you probably won’t be taxed on it as much. While in your main portfolio you could have tech stocks which have a “notional gain” but not really taxable as you’re probably not gonna sell them for a very long time.

Ko O

@1:48 - start

Tomasz Antosiewicz

Three is no need for the crash in stocks. All you need is 2 flat years and earnings will catch up. That's the most likely scenario.

fallen angel

OUTSTANDING